Mortgage Blog - December 11, 2017

Last week we received good news that both New and Pending Home Sales are heading in the right direction, upwards. October New Home Sales rose 6.2%, to a 685,000 annual rate, soundly beating forecasts for the second month in a row. That puts sales of new single family homes up 18.7% over a year ago, at their highest level since 2007, and, this isn't just an artificial rebound from the hurricanes. All major regions saw sales gains, with the smallest actually coming from the south. The average sales pace for the past three months is also the highest since 2007.

For October, the Pending Home Sales measure of contracts signed on existing homes rebounded to a 3.5% gain following the 0.4% dip in September. This suggests existing homes sales should move up in November and December. Prices in many markets edge higher, as national measures continue to go up. Consequently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are increasing the conforming loan limits in 2018 for most of the mortgages they insure. The baseline limit will go to $453,100, while the limit in "high-cost areas" will be $679,650. Call me today, 303.668.3350 as some of these loan limits could vary by county.

Review of Last Week

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.9%, to 24232; the S&P 500 UP 1.5%, to 2642; and the Nasdaq down 0.6%, to 6848.

With the tax bill vote delayed in the Senate, bond traders pushed Treasuries higher, though other bonds lost ground. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .25, at $104.53. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending December 7 showed national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates rising, but remaining lower than where they were this time last year.

Where are interest rates headed?

This Week's Forecast

Inflation is tame, Retail sales and Fed rate rise. The big data this week will be Friday's November Employment Report. Economists predict more historically high numbers.

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of December 11th - December 15th

Dec 12    08:30    Producer Price Index (PPI)
Dec 12    08:30    Core PPI
Dec 13    08:30    Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Dec 13    08:30    Core CPI
Dec 13    10:30    Crude Inventories   
Dec 13    14:00    FOMC Rate Decision
Dec 14    08:30    Initial Unemployment Claims
Dec 14    08:30    Continuing Unemployment Claims
Dec 14    08:30    Retail Sales
Dec 14    08:30    Retail Sales ex-auto
Dec 14    10:00    Business Inventories
Dec 15    08:30    NY Empire Manufacturing Index
Dec 15    09:15    Industrial Production
Dec 15    09:15    Capacity Utilization

Federal Reserve Watch

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

The only surprise that could come out of this week's FOMC meeting is if the Fed Funds Rate does not go up, and the Fed Funds Futures market sees another quarter percent bump come March.

Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 100% certainty the rate will rise, while an 11% probability of change is an 89% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.00%-1.25%

After FOMC meeting on:   

Dec 13    1.25%-1.50%
Jan 31    1.25%-1.50%
Mar 21    1.50%-1.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:    

Dec 13         100%
Jan 31           11%
Mar 21           51%

Where are interest rates headed?

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

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Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.coloradosmortgageexpert.com
303.668.3350 Direct

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The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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