 We were certainly traveling on happy trails last week following two upward trending housing market reports.
September New Home Sales went up 3.1%, compared to a year ago, sales are up 29.8%. If that doesn't make you happy, consider this - after experiencing a summer lull in August, new home sales in September posted their fastest sales since 2008 excluding July's excellent numbers. The biggest obstacle to higher sales remains low inventories. As those slid in September, it shows builders are falling behind demand so there is a lot of room to increase construction activity. The other happy housing report? The Pending Home Sales index of contracts signed on existing homes was up 1.5% in September following its August dip. Combined readings from recent months indicate existing home sales, in coming months, should continue the gains made in September. The index is 2.4% ahead of September last year, this is the 25th month in a row of year-over-year increases. The national Case Shiller home price index was up 0.6% in August and up 5.3% versus a year ago. The FHFA index of prices for homes bought with conforming mortgages gained 0.7% in August and 6.4% over a year ago. This should make more homeowners happy enough to list their properties. Review of Last Week For four days, stocks traded in a fairly narrow range, then came Friday's surprises. The first was the slightly positive surprise that the first estimate for Q3 GDP growth came in at a 2.9% annual rate. This follows dismal Q2 GDP growth of just 1.4% and was the first time in two years that a quarterly first estimate of GDP surprised to the upside. All this was overshadowed by another surprise - the report the FBI will reopen its investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails. Political turmoil of any kind does not play well on Wall Street and as a result, ended lower on the day, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finishing down for the week, the Dow barely up. You would think Wall Street would be used to uncertainty by now having weathered eight years of up and down economic reports. Last week continued the exercise with housing numbers beating expectations, just like that estimate for Q3 GDP but then we had the disappointments. Durable Goods Orders were down in September, while October Consumer Confidence fell noticeably short of estimates and lest we think the latter report was an aberration - it was followed Friday by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index getting revised down for its final reading for October, ending up below its lackluster September level. The week ended with the Dow UP 0.1%, to 18161; the S&P 500 down 0.7%, to 2126; and the Nasdaq down 1.3%, to 5190. Bond traders did not seem to know whether to play off the positive or the weaker economic data, as Treasuries gained, while other issues dipped a bit. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .10, at $107.06. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates slid back from last week's blip up, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 27. This Week’s Forecast Expect to see Personal Spending making a move up in September. Core PCE Prices should show inflation at a mild 0.1%, not what the Fed wants to see (they need it higher to hike rates!.) This week's FOMC Rate Decision is expected to keep rates on hold. Manufacturing is also on hold with the Midwest Chicago PMI down a bit and the national ISM Index up a little although both still in expansion territory. September Nonfarm Payrolls are predicted to stay well below 200,000, barely more than we need to cover population growth. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 31 – Nov 4 Oct 31 08:30 Personal Income Oct 31 08:30 Personal Spending Oct 31 08:30 Core PCE Prices Oct 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Nov 1 10:00 ISM Index Nov 2 10:30 Crude Inventories Nov 2 14:00 FOMC Rate Decision Nov 3 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims Nov 3 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims Nov 3 08:30 Productivity - Preliminary Nov 3 10:00 ISM Services Nov 4 08:30 Average Workweek Nov 4 08:30 Hourly Earnings Nov 4 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 4 08:30 Unemployment Rate Nov 4 08:30 Trade Balance Federal Reserve Watch Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months: Last week's higher first estimate of Q3 GDP made no difference to Fed watchers who don't see the central bank touching rates this week but December looks like a different story. Note: In the lower chart, an 8% probability of change is a 92% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5% After FOMC meeting on: Nov 2 0.25%-0.50% Dec 14 0.5%-0.75% Feb 1 0.5%-0.75% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Nov 2 8% Dec 14 74% Feb 1 76% Have a great week! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate  One could call today both a good day and a bad day for housing data since we have to report Housing Starts down and Existing Home Sales up in September.
A look beyond the headline numbers paints a better picture. Yes, Housing Starts dropped 9.0% last month, to a 1.047 million annual rate. But, the drop came from a 38% dive in those volatile multifamily starts, their biggest dip in seven years. Single family starts came in up 8.1% for the month and up 5.4% versus a year ago. Building Permits were up 6.3% in September, with both single-family and multifamily gains, so all should be well going forward. Our 'good day' headline reads, 'Existing Home Sales Rose 3.2% in September, to a 5.47 Million Annual Rate.' Good to see them nudging up to 5.5 million units. Even better, the increase was driven by a big boost in first-time home buyers. They accounted for 34% of the market, up from 31% in August and 29% a year ago, reaching their highest share since July 2012. The National Association of Realtors chief economist feels, "there is hope the leap in sales to first time buyers can stick through the rest of the year and into next spring." He believes "the market fundamentals are there for the steady rise in first timers needed to finally reverse the decline in the home ownership rate." Review of Last Week After two weekly declines in a row, all three stock indexes scored weekly gains, though the blue chip Dow ended up by a mere seven points, less than a tenth of a percent. There were continued concerns about the Fed boosting rates, spurred when FOMC Vice Chair William Dudley said that a rate hike before the end of 2016 makes sense to him. San Francisco Fed President John Williams chimed in that he wanted to see the Fed raise rates "preferably sooner rather than later." Yet corporate earnings reports started coming in, and despite a few good ones, some analysts are predicting the sixth straight quarter of declining earnings among S&P 500 companies. This sign of a weak if not yet sputtering economy might give the Fed pause about throwing higher borrowing costs into the mix. The last thing they want to do if they raise rates is to have to take them back down. The week's economic reports delivered the usual mixed bag of data. Industrial Production was up just 0.1% in September after an August setback, and it's down 1% from a year ago. The Philadelphia Fed Index showed factory sentiment down in that region but still indicating growth. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) pegged inflation up 1.5% from a year ago, getting closer to the Fed's 2% target. But real average hourly earnings are up just 1.0% the past year. The week ended with the Dow UP just 7+ points, to 18145; the S&P 500 UP 0.4%, to 2141; and the Nasdaq UP 0.8%, to 5257. Bond trading ended the week quietly, with a slight uptick in Treasuries, as well as other issues. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .14, at $107.16. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 20, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates edged higher for the second week in a row. They're at their highest level in four months, but still near record lows. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile so call me any time to discuss the market. This Week’s Forecast Analysts are not forecasting much of a gain for New Home Sales in September, but at least they aren't sliding backwards. The Pending Home Sales index of contracts signed on existing homes should tick up into growth territory, expected to be up 0.6%, a 3% jump from its August contraction. The Employment Cost Index, is predicted to be up again. This is a key inflation indicator, since when employment costs (wages and benefits) go up, prices may soon follow. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 24 – Oct 28 Oct 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct 26 10:00 New Home Sales Oct 26 10:30 Crude Inventories Oct 27 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims Oct 27 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims Oct 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Oct 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Oct 28 08:30 GDP - Advanced Oct 28 08:30 Employment Cost Index Oct 28 10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Federal Reserve Watch A December rate hike forecast is now being repeated so often, it will be a shock if we don't get it. But almost no one expects one in November. Note: In the lower chart, an 8% probability of change is a 92% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5% After FOMC meeting on: Nov 2 0.25%-0.5% Dec 14 0.5%-0.75% Feb 1 0.5%-0.75% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Nov 2 8% Dec 14 70% Feb 1 71% Have a great week! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate  FOMC Minutes from September revealed the Fed is not going anywhere with rates as they are worried about the economy. Fed Chair Yellen said, "Our decision does not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy." Yellen expanded by saying the Fed preferred to take a cautious approach to see if current growth would continue. Sounds like she is worried that it will not. Nonetheless, the minutes showed a cadre of Fed members pushing for a hike, so many economists feel there is an increased chance for one in December.
One worry that is going away is whether Millennials will ever have a real impact on the housing market. According to Freddie Mac's October Insight, this latest and largest generation of homebuyers will actually be key to improving the home ownership rate, which has declined for a decade. Freddie is confident Millennials will finally marry, start families and buy homes at the faster pace posted by previous generations. The Millennial Tracker from Ellie Mae loan origination software reported "In August, Millennial borrowers enjoyed the lowest average interest rates we have seen all year. And we are seeing average loan amounts creep up." Nice to be getting somewhere. Review of Last Week October has indeed gotten off to a rocky start for those toiling on Wall Street. Trading ended Friday with all three major stock indexes down for the second week in a row. This is a little scary for investors and it's not even Halloween. One fear rocking traders is that the Fed will do a rate hike before the end of the year. As reported above, the minutes released from the Fed's last meeting seem to indicate this. But Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen told a lunch crowd of academics and policy wonks that "temporarily running a 'high-pressure economy,' with...a tight labor market" before raising rates might cure the sluggish economy. OK, no hike? Meanwhile, some of the week's economic data seemed to point to an economy that could survive a mild hit from the Fed. Retail Sales finally headed up in September, and by a respectable 0.6%. Unfortunately, they're up only 2.7% compared to a year ago. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale price inflation was up 0.3% in September. Consumer price inflation could follow, something the Fed wants to see. Initial Unemployment Claims, at 246,000 for the week, tied their lowest level in more than 40 years. Yet the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index dropped from September's 91.2, to 87.9 in October, a one-year low. Rock on. The week ended with the Dow down 0.6%, to 18138; the S&P 500 down 1.0%, to 2133; and the Nasdaq down 1.5%, to 5214. It was one of those unusual weeks when stocks and bonds sank together. Treasuries were hit hard, so yields went up and interest rates followed. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .14, at $107.02. And yes, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates edged a bit higher, their first move up in a month, in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 13. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so please contact me direct at 303.668.3350 for up to date information. This Week’s Forecast Expect to see home building activity growing in September, with both Housing Starts and Building Permits edging ahead. But they still have some distance to go to reach the 1.5 million annual rate some economists say we need to meet population growth and replace tear downs. Existing Home Sales are forecast down a bit in September. At least the CPI should show benign inflation, good for consumers and mortgage rates. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 17 – Oct 21 Oct 17 08:30 NY Empire Manufacturing Index Oct 17 09:15 Industrial Production Oct 18 09:15 Capacity Utilization Oct 18 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Oct 18 08:30 Core CPI Oct 19 08:30 Housing Starts Oct 19 08:30 Building Permit Oct 19 10:30 Crude Inventories Oct 19 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Oct 20 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims Oct 20 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims Oct 20 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Oct 20 10:00 Existing Home Sales Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. It's practically a foregone conclusion among Fed watchers that the rate will head north in December, then stay there at the next meet in February. Note: In the lower chart, an 8% probability of change is a 92% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5% After FOMC meeting on: Nov 2 0.25%-0.5% Dec 14 0.5%-0.75% Feb 1 0.5%-0.75% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Nov 2 8% Dec 14 69% Feb 1 72% Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate  New data from realtor.com says that following a summer housing market that saw both high demand and rising home prices, we could experience the hottest fall sales in a decade. Their chief economist said "house hunters who were shut out this summer because of fierce competition could fare better this fall, with more opportunities." He adds, "pent-up demand remains as buyers seek to get a home under contract while rates remain so low."
A research firm projects the third quarter will be the best for mortgage lending since Q4 of 2007. Going forward, a blog by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) notes that sales should heat up even more next year, reaching 6 million units, up from their latest forecast of 5.8 million units for 2016. This post reported that the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all had similar predictions. Here's the NAR's explanation: "A huge wave of Generation Y-ers [aka Millennials], who have delayed home buying, are emerging into their key buying years. They are predicted to keep home and condo sales strong well into 2020, according to economists." Review of Last Week The stock market went up and down but never broke out of a narrow trading range, which led one observer to conclude investors seem to be finding it hard to know what to think. In the end, the three major indexes all finished a smidge down, their first fall after three weekly gains. Wall Street worried that the European Central Bank would cut back on the assets it's buying to shore up their economies. We heard rate hike talk from Fed officials and watched the British pound swoon. Then came Friday's jobs report: an unimpressive 156,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls were added in September, a net gain of 149,000, deducting downward revisions to prior months. This was technically no job growth at all according to economists who say we need 150,000 new payrolls a month just to keep up with the population. However, average hourly earnings were up 2.6% annually, near a seven year high. But, hey, if less than 3% is nearly our best annual raise in seven years, we're not doing very well, are we? At least a rate hike before December seems off the table. For good stuff, the ISM Index saw manufacturing expand again and ISM Services shot up to the year's highest read for the sector that supports the most jobs. Plus the four-week moving average of weekly initial jobless claims was the lowest in more than 40 years. The week ended with the Dow down 0.4%, to 18240; the S&P 500 down 0.7%, to 2154; and the Nasdaq down 0.4%, to 5292. Treasuries traded higher after the jobs report missed expectations, but the data wasn't bad enough to rule out a December Fed hike, so other bonds fell. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .26, at $107.16. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending October 6 showed national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates unchanged, holding at a 10-week low. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. This Week’s Forecast This Wednesday's release of the FOMC Minutes from the Fed's last meeting may give some indications of when the next rate hike will come. Or this detailed look at what was said at the Fed may just keep everyone guessing. (Bet on the latter.) We ought to finally have some good news on Retail Sales, September's number expected to show reasonable growth. The bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, but the stock market is open. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 10 – Oct 14 Oct 12 10:30 Crude Inventories Oct 12 14:00 FOMC Minutes Oct 13 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims Oct 13 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims Oct 13 14:00 Federal Budget Oct 14 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI)F Oct 14 08:30 Core PPI Oct 14 08:30 Retail Sales Oct 14 10:00 Business Inventories Oct 14 10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Nothing much has changed among Fed watchers, meaning they're betting on no rate hike in November, then a small boost in December, which the Fed will likely leave there for a while. Note: In the lower chart, an 8% probability of change is a 92% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Nov 2 0.25%-0.5% Dec 14 0.5%-0.75% Feb 1 0.5%-0.75% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Nov 2 8% Dec 14 65% Feb 1 68% Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate  Just Because You Received A Denial Does Not Mean You Cannot Be Approved.
More than 75% percent of mortgage applicants today successfully get a loan. That is the highest percentage this decade according to software provider Ellie Mae, but what about the other 25%? There are applicants that will be turned down however that usually means “not now” or “try again” instead of “no.” The key is to know why you were turned down. More importantly, is there another way you can be approved? Here are some reasons you may not have received a mortgage approval even if you meet the mortgage program’s requirements and what to do about it. Go From "Eligible" To "Approved" Even though you meet mortgage program guidelines you may still be turned down. For example, Fannie Mae will allow applicants with FICO scores as low as 620 and debt to income ratios as high as 45%. FHA allows loans with FICO scores as low as 580 and debt to income ratios between 43% and 50% and in certain cases higher. Although the applicant meets these guidelines, they may not receive a loan approval. Conforming to "by the book guidelines" is no guarantee and there is still an underwriters judgment call that takes place, and here is why: Imagine if lenders approved each and every loan that came across their desks. That would not be good for the lender and additionally could potentially hurt the mortgage applicant as well. Approving a loan for which the loan applicant cannot pay back puts him or her in a worse financial position as opposed to never owning a home. Lenders would like to see every “eligible” borrower approved however they will not sign off unless they are convinced the future homeowner demonstrates the ability to pay back the loan. Small Changes, Big Impact Most lenders approve or turn down a loan based on an Automated Underwriting System or AUS software that weighs all factors of your loan profile. Fannie Mae's version is called Desktop Originator and Freddie Mac's is Loan Prospector. The algorithms are not always predictable and, in fact, a small tweak or change to your loan profile can move you to “approved” status. For example, one applicant might have perfect credit, a higher than normal debt to income ratio, and a very minimal down payment. In this scenario, he does not receive an approval. However with certain changes, one where the borrower pays off the credit card with a high monthly payment, will improve his debt to income ratio and in turn result in a loan approval. Consider the following changes if you are looking to get your loan approved:
You could be surprised at what a seemingly small change can do to your approval status. Compensating Factors are Key You may get a pass for a less than desirable credit score however a low credit score combined with a high debt to income ratio will most likely not be approved. When lenders approve loans with certain elements of risk, they like to see an accompanying compensating factor or a positive aspect of the loan file that makes up for, or offsets the not so great part. For instance, a low credit score can be offset by high income and low debt to income ratio. In certain circumstances, lending limits can be stretched, but only so far. Know Why Lender Overlays Exist Sometimes mortgage lenders impose stricter rules than those dictated by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or government loan programs. These rules or “lender overlays” are implemented to help lenders keep their default rates low. For example, a mortgage lender opens a loan and the homeowner soon misses payments, and eventually the loan goes into foreclosure. Fannie Mae or whichever agency the loan is sold to can impose penalties on the lender if it finds the lender made a processing or underwriting error. As a result the lender imposes overlays to reduce risk and to help ensure they deliver "performing" loans to the respective investors. Increase Your Approval Chances There are ways to increase your odds of approval. First, work with a reputable and knowledgeable mortgage loan originator like myself. I am happy to evaluate your income, assets and credit score and will explain each available loan program Make sure to call me and get get qualified before property shopping. This is one of the number one ways to minimize disappointment. I can be reached direct at 303.668.3350. Also, in prequalifiying you can evaluate beforehand any issue or obstacles and determine how to correct these obstacles before finding a property. If you are already prequalified, great! I cannot stress to you enough, do not change a thing! Delay applying for new credit, changing jobs, moving money around, switching loan programs, or choosing a more expensive property. Once you are prequalified it is important that each of these factors remains constant. What are today's rates? Mortgage rates are at all time lows which makes it easier to get approved. Low rates mean reduced payments and helps the lender to better justify your approval status. Get a rate quote, and see how low your payment can be! Call me today, 303.668.3350! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate  Those aiming for perfection in the housing recovery would agree it is indeed quite elusive.
Last week's reports proved to be anything but perfect. New Home Sales were down 7.6% in August, to a 609,000 annual rate but let's remember, home sales data are extremely volatile month to month and they shot up in July to their fastest rate since 2007. In August, that pace remained relatively strong. If you take out July's numbers, August posted the fastest sales pace since 2008, ending UP 20.6% compared to a year ago and the bulk of those sales were for homes that have yet to break ground, so demand is clearly ahead of supply. Note that the New Home Sales report is for single-family homes. Multi-family deals (condos, co-ops) aren't counted. Pending Home Sales, an index of contracts signed on existing homes dipped 2.4% in August following a 1.2% gain in July. Media naysayers jumped on the pending home sales declines in three of the past four months, and warned of an impending stall in the housing recovery. Yet the National Association of Realtors projects existing home sales will hit 5.36 million in 2016, up 2.1% from 2015 and the highest annual pace since 2006. Though not perfect, the housing recovery remains one of the few bright spots in the otherwise lethargic U.S. economy. Review of Last Week It was a volatile week on Wall Street, with stocks rocking up one day, then rolling downhill the next. The cause of all this was the up-and-down news surrounding a major global bank headquartered on the other side of the pond. Fears for its future were fueled by concerns about its capital standing, coupled with our Justice Department looking to extract from it a multi-billion dollar settlement. But Friday saw the bank's CEO send employees a letter assuring them of the firm's health, followed by news that the bank is near a more reasonable settlement with Justice. Stocks rallied and the three major indexes posted weekly gains once again. Amidst all of this, the economic reports didn't seem to matter much. True to form, the data ranged wide. On the down side were the headline housing numbers, though underlying trends keep moving up. Final Q2 GDP showed the economy grew at a 1.4% annual rate, higher than initial estimates but pathetic by historical standards. Consumer spending was unchanged, though personal income inched up along with inflation, still far below Fed targets. On the up side, Consumer Confidence hit its highest level since before the recession, Michigan Consumer Sentiment improved and the Chicago PMI indicated some manufacturing expansion in the Midwest. The week ended with the Dow UP 0.3%, to 18308; the S&P 500 UP 0.2%, to 2168; and the Nasdaq UP 0.1%, to 5312. As global equity markets rallied on Friday, bonds lost the ground they picked up when stocks slid earlier in the week. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .08, at $107.42. For the week ending September 29, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped to a 10-week low in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Their chief economist linked this to "the FOMC's decision to leave rates unchanged." Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile. This Week’s Forecast We should see the ISM Index of manufacturing activity push back over 50, indicating barely visible growth. ISM Services, measuring the sector of our economy providing most jobs, is also expected to inch ahead. The September Employment Report will be the week's featured attraction, forecast to show another modest gain in Nonfarm Payrolls and equally unspectacular Hourly Earnings growth. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Oct 3 – Oct 7 Oct 3 10:00 ISM Index Oct 5 08:30 Trade Balance Oct 5 10:00 ISM Services Oct 5 10:30 Crude Inventories Oct 6 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims Oct 6 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims Oct 7 08:30 Average Workweek Oct 7 08:30 Hourly Earnings Oct 7 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Oct 7 08:30 Unemployment Rate Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Fed watchers still see no rate hike at the next FOMC meet just days before the election, but the majority expect a small rise in December, which will hold come February. Note: In the lower chart, a 10% probability of change is a 90% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5% After FOMC meeting on: Nov 2 0.25%-0.5% Dec 14 0.5%-0.75% Feb 1 0.5%-0.75% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Nov 2 10% Dec 14 62% Feb 1 63% Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate |
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Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation 950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246 Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate. Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California. Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies. |
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