Last week’s scheduled economic news releases included readings on builder sentiment from the National Association of Home Builders and. Commerce Department data on housing starts and building permits issued.

The National Association of Realtors® reported on sales of previously owned homes and the University of Michigan issued its monthly report on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Builder Sentiment Dips in November

Home builders were less optimistic about housing market conditions in November; the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index dipped by one point to an index reading of 70 for November. October’s reading of 71 was the highest in 20 months. Any reading over 50 indicates that most builders surveyed were positive about market conditions.

Sub-readings used to calculate the NAHB Housing Market Index reading were mixed. Builder confidence in market conditions for the next six months rose one point to 77, but builder sentiment dipped two points to 76 for current market conditions. Builder sentiment about buyer traffic in new housing developments dipped one point to 53; buyer traffic readings rarely exceed a reading of 50.

Relatively low mortgage rates helped offset builder concerns over tariffs on building materials, but pending winter weather conditions likely impacted lower builder enthusiasm over housing market conditions.

Commerce Department Reports Increased Housing Starts, Building Permits Issued

Housing starts and building permits rose in October; Housing starts rose to 1.314 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to September’sreading of 1.266 million starts.

Building permits issued increased from September’s reading of 1.391 million permits issued to October’s reading of 1.461 million permits issued. Building permits issued for new homes in October reached their highest level since the recession. Ongoing shortages of available homes continued to boost demand for homes; any increase in new construction helps balance supply and demand for homes.

Sales of previously-owned homes fell short of expectations with a reading of 5.46 million sales at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate in October; analysts expected a pace of 5.47 million sales based on September’s reading of 5.36 million sales. Year-over-year sales of previously-owned homes rose 4.60 percent.

Supplies of available homes continued to fall according to the National Association of Realtors® as inventories slipped to a 3.9 months supply in October. Real estate pros consider a six-months supply of homes as a healthy balance between available homes and home buyers.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week; rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell nine basis points to 3.66 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.15 percent and were five basis points lower.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages also fell five basis points to 3.39 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

New jobless claims were expected to drop to 218,000 claims filed but held steady at the prior week’s reading of 227,000 first-time claims filed.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of 96.80 for November; analysts expected the reading to hold steady at October’s reading of 95.70 percent.

What’s Ahead for the Week of November 25, 2019

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on home prices from Case-Shiller; reports on new and pending home sales and a speech by Fed chair Jerome Powell. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Tuesday November 26, 2016          Consumer Confidence    
Tuesday November 26, 2016          New Home Sales Units    
Wednesday November 27, 2019    Durable Goods
Wednesday November 27, 2019    GDP 2nd estimate
Wednesday November 27, 2019    Core PCE Prices preliminary    
Wednesday November 27, 2019    Initial Jobless Claims
Wednesday November 27, 2019    Personal Income    
Wednesday November 27, 2019    Core PCE Price Index
Wednesday November 27, 2019    Pending Home
Friday November 29, 2019              Chicago PMI

Have a great week!

Scott Synovic
AnnieMac Home Mortgage
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.coloradosmortgageexpert.com
#coloradosmortgageexpert
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / AnnieMac Home Mortgage NMLS: 338923
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new unemployment claims.

Rising Gas Prices Fuel Jump in Inflation

Consumer inflation increased at its fastest pace in seven months according to the Consumer Price Index for October. Consumer prices rose 0.40 percent and exceeded analysts’ forecast of 0.30 percent and September’s reading of 0.00 percent inflationary growth.  Analysts attributed the jump in prices to rapidly rising gasoline prices.

October’s reading for core inflation, which excludes fuel and food prices, supported this view. Core inflation grew by 0.20 percent in October, which matched expectations and exceeded September’s core inflation reading of 0.10 percent.

Year-over-year inflation rose from 1.70 percent to 1.80 percent; this was lower than the top year-over-year reading that approached 3.00 percent.

Fed Chair Says Interest Rates on Hold Unless Economy Deteriorates

In testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said,: “We see the current stance of monetary policy to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market,  and inflation near our symmetric rate of 2.00 percent.”

Mr. Powell said that Federal Reserve Policy is flexible and subject to adjustment as required by future news and economic events. The benchmark Federal Funds rate range is currently 1.50 percent to 2.00 percent.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose six basis points to 3.25 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose seven basis points to 3.20 percent;  the average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages rose five basis points to 3.44 percent.

Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

225,000 first-time jobless claims were filed last week; this exceeded expectations of 210,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 211,000 new jobless claims filed. Analysts said the spike in new claims was caused by seasonal anomalies and not by layoffs. New jobless claims are likely to fall as the holiday season approaches and seasonal hiring picks up.

What’s Ahead for the Week of November 18, 2019

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions; the Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Readings on sales of pre-owned homes and consumer sentiment will also be released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Tuesday November 19, 2019  Nov Building Permits    
Tuesday November 19, 2019  Housing Starts October    
Thursday November 21, 2019  Initial Jobless Claims         
Thursday November 21, 2019  Existing Home Sales    
Friday November 22, 2019  Nov U of Mich Consumer Sent.

Have a great week!

Scott Synovic
AnnieMac Home Mortgage
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.coloradosmortgageexpert.com
#coloradosmortgageexpert
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / AnnieMac Home Mortgage NMLS: 338923
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Shiller on home prices, pending home sales data and the post-meeting statement announcement from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee were released.

Labor sector reports on jobs and the national unemployment rate were also released. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims were also published.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in August

Home price growth slowed by 0.20 percent in August for the first time since August 2018. Home price growth rates typically decrease in August as peak home-buying season passes. The Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index showed a geographical shift away from the West and Southwest in August as two of the three cities with the highest home price growth rates were in the Southeast.

Home prices in Phoenix, Arizona held the top spot in the 20-City Home Price Index with a seasonally-adjusted annual growth rate of 6.30 percent. Home prices in Charlotte, North Carolina and in Atlanta, Georgia rose 4.50 and 4.00 percent.

Pending home sales rose 1.50 percent in September according to the National Association of Realtors®. Pending home sales gauge future closed sales and mortgage loan volume.

Fed Lowers Key Interest Rate Range

The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive cut to its benchmark interest rate range but indicated that future rate cuts may be on hold. Fed policymakers cut the federal funds rate range one-quarter percent to 1.50 to 1.75 percent from 1.75 percent to 2.00 percent.

Federal Open Market Committee members said global economic developments and muted inflationary pressure were considerations in the decision to lower the Fed’s key interest rate range.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week; rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose eight basis points and averaged 3.78 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose one basis point and averaged 3.19 percent.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages rose three basis points to 3.43 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose by 5000 claims to 218,000 new claims filed. The national unemployment rate rose to 3.60 percent in October as compared to September’s reading of 3.50 percent. ADP reported 125,000 private-sector jobs added in October as compared to 93,000 jobs added in September. 128,000 public and private sector jobs were added in October according to the government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

What’s Ahead for the Week of November 4, 2019

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on job openings and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Economic Reports that may Impact Mortgage Rates This Week:

Monday November 4, 2019  November Factory Orders
Tuesday November 5, 2019  ISM Non-Mfg PMI
Tuesday November 5, 2019  JOLTS Job Openings
Thursday November 5, 2019  Initial Jobless Claims
Friday November 8, 2019  U of Mich. Consumer Sent.

Have a great week!

Scott Synovic
AnnieMac Home Mortgage
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.coloradosmortgageexpert.com
#coloradosmortgageexpert
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / AnnieMac Home Mortgage NMLS: 338923
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.