Mortgage Blog - April 24, 2017

The upward trend continues in home building. This may seem like a far fetched statement if you saw the headline number for March Housing Starts, down 6.8%, however that is coming off a big February boost thanks to unusually mild weather, plus, the March Housing Starts 1.215 million unit annual rate is up 9.2% over a year ago. More proof of the upward trend? New Building Permits were up 3.6% in March, with single-family permits up 13.5% versus a year ago. The April's National Association of Home Builders sentiment index sits at a solid 68.

Friday we learned that Existing Home Sales were up 4.4% in March, hitting a 5.71 million annual rate, their highest pace in more than a decade! This puts sales 5.9% ahead of where they were a year ago. Demand was so strong that 48% of the existing homes sold were on the market in less than a month. Reflecting this trend, the Potential Home Sales model from a provider of settlement services shows the housing market performing 47% better than last year. Their chief economist said the model measures what "a healthy market level of home sales should be, based on the economic, demographic, and housing market environments."

Review of Last Week

Friday President Trump revealed he would release a "massive tax cut package" this week. This was enough to push the three major stock indexes ahead for the five days of trading.

In addition to prospects for tax cuts, investors could feel good about some things going on in the economy. Existing Home Sales upside surprise was great along with encouraging data on the manufacturing front. Industrial Production went up 0.5% in March and overall Capacity Utilization increased to 76.1%. The New York Empire State Index showed continued manufacturing improvement in that region. The same goes for the Philadelphia Fed Index. Healthier manufacturing means more good paying jobs and that's great for the housing market. Finally, Continuing Unemployment Claims fell below the 2 million level.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.5%, to 20548; the S&P 500 UP 0.8%, to 2349; and the Nasdaq UP 1.8%, to 5911.

U.S. Treasuries and other bonds made small gains as investors shored up their safe harbor positions before those pesky French elections. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .06, at $105.33. National average 30 year fixed mortgage rates dropped again in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending April 20tj. This time they hit their lowest mark since November of last year.

Where are interest rates headed?

This Week’s Forecast

\New Home Sales, which are predicted to slip a bit. The Employment Cost Index is expected to edge up, good for wage growth and housing, though the Fed also sees that as an indicator of rising inflation with rates eventually doing the same. The Chicago PMI is forecast to show Midwest manufacturing still growing at a nice pace.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of April 24th – April 28th:

Apr 25     10:00     New Home Sales
Apr 25     10:00     Consumer Confidence
Apr 26     10:30     Crude Inventories
Apr 27     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Apr 27     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claims
Apr 27     08:30     Durable Goods Orders
Apr 27     10:00     Pending Home Sales
Apr 28     08:30     GDP - Advanced
Apr 28     10:00     Employment Cost Index\
Apr 28     09:45     Chicago PMI\
Apr 28     10:00     U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

Economists expect the Fed to keep rates where they are in May but there is a better than even chance we'll see a quarter percent hike in July.

Note: In the lower chart, a 5% probability of change is a 95% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.75%-1.0%

After FOMC meeting on:     

May 3     0.75%-1.0%
Jun 14     1.0%-1.25%
Jul 26     1.0%-1.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:    

May 3             5%
Jun 14           53%
Jul 26           58%

Where are interest rates headed?

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Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

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The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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