Scott Synovic Mortgage Loan Originator Colorado's Mortgage Expert
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now

Scott Synovic CMA, CMPS, CMHS
Fairway Independent Mortgage
303.668.3350

Inside Lending - February 13, 2017

2/13/2017

 
Picture
Good things are happening in the housing market as Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reported that housing confidence in December reversed its five-month decline, heading up 2 percentage points, with personal finance optimism reaching a seven-year high.

The chief economist noted: "Three months after the presidential election, measures of consumer optimism regarding personal financial prospects and the economy are at or near the highest levels we've seen in the nearly seven-year history of the National Housing Survey."

Reflecting that increased housing confidence among consumers the Mortgage Bankers Association reported purchase mortgage applications up 2% for the week ending February 3. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) report for Q4 of 2016 saw the best quarterly sales pace for the year, which drove inventory to record lows but the NAR president pointed out this should boost sales activity now: "There are fewer listings but also a little less competition than what's expected this spring. The prospect of higher mortgage rates and more home shoppers in coming months should be enough of an incentive for those serious about buying to start their search now."

Review of Last Week

Last Thursday President Donald Trump said he would deliver on his campaign pledge to move quickly on tax reform, promising to announce a "phenomenal" tax policy in a few weeks. What was "phenomenal" immediately was Wall Street's reaction. Investors sent the three main stock indexes to record highs by the end of the day--and followed that by pushing all three indexes up to another set of record highs on Friday. Many observers believe tax reform has the potential to jolt the economy out of the frustratingly slow growth we've seen since the recession by boosting personal incomes, corporate earnings and well-paying jobs.

All those things would be good for the housing market. There wasn't a lot of economic data to chew on, but we did have a nice $1.4 billion decrease in the Trade Deficit. The Treasury Budget came in just north of $51 billion in the black in January, though the 12-month budget was almost $584 billion in the red in December. The Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for February slipped from January but it's still up there, as we've only seen five higher readings in the last ten years. Initial Unemployment Claims dropped by 13,000 for the week, while Continuing Claims edged up but remain just above the two million level.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.0%, to 20269; the S&P 500 UP 0.8%, to 2316; and the Nasdaq UP 1.2%, to 5734.

As investors scurried over to stocks on Thursday, bond prices fell but recovered Friday thanks to some dip-buying. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .06, at $104.95. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending February 9, their chief economist noting, "rates are at about the same level at which they started the year."

Where are interest rates headed?

This Week’s Forecast

January reports are expected to show Housing Starts off but Building Permits increasing, indicating builders are ramping up for the spring selling season. CPI and Core CPI inflation should rise, but consumers are still spending. Retail Sales are forecast up a tad overall and Retail Sales ex-auto, excluding volatile auto sales, up by a bigger amount. Pretty good for January. Manufacturing has mixed predictions, down by the Philadelphia Fed Index but up or flat in other reports.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 13th – February 17th

Feb 14     08:30     Producer Price Index (PPI)
Feb 14     08:30     Core PPI
Feb 15     08:30     Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Feb 15     08:30     Core CPI
Feb 15     08:30     NY Empire Manufacturing Index
Feb 15     08:30     Retail Sales
Feb 15     08:30     Retail Sales ex-auto
Feb 15     09:15     Industrial Production
Feb 15     09:15     Capacity Utilization
Feb 15     10:00     Business Inventories
Feb 15     10:30     Crude Inventories
Feb 16     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Feb 16     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claims
Feb 16     08:30     Housing Starts
Feb 16     08:30     Building Permits
Feb 16     08:30     Philadelphia Fed Index
Feb 17     10:00     Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

Most economists can't see a rate hike at the next two meetings, but the majority does expect a quarter percent bump in June.

Note: In the lower chart, a 13% probability of change is an 87% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.5%-0.75%

After FOMC meeting on: 


Mar 15     0.5%-0.75%
May 3     0.5%-0.75%
Jun 14     0.75%-1.0%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:    

Mar 15           13%
May 3           34%
Jun 14           67%

Where are interest rates headed?

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289

Comments are closed.
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    APPLY NOW

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

popular pages

Refinance
Eliminate PMI
Consolidate Debt
Mortgage Calculators
How Much is My Home Worth?
Interest Rates

Company

About Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
Financing Disclaimer
Contact

mortgage insight

join now
Communications Consent
Picture
Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246

Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
​Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California.
Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies.

Picture
Picture
Picture
Featured in The Denver Post and 5280 Magazine as a Five Star Mortgage Professional
© Copyright 2022. All Rights Reserved.
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now