Scott Synovic Mortgage Loan Originator Colorado's Mortgage Expert
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now

Scott Synovic CMA, CMPS, CMHS
Fairway Independent Mortgage
303.668.3350

Inside Lending - February 27, 2017

2/27/2017

 
Picture
The housing market got off to a great beginning this year.

Existing Home Sales shot up 3.3% in January to a 5.69 million unit annual rate, the fastest pace since 2007!

The National Association of Realtors chief economist commented, "there are still challenges that remain however the housing market is off to an excellent start."

Existing home sales are up 3.8% over last year.

The challenges include low inventories, which have now fallen 20 months in a row, and a median price up 7.1% from a year ago, thanks to growing demand however that should bring more on-the-fence sellers into the market to boost supply.

Let's also note that mortgage rates are still extremely low by historical standards, incomes are increasing and the market will grow as surveys show homeownership continues to be the American dream. New Home Sales also had a great beginning to the year, posting a 3.7% gain in January, to a 555,000 unit annual rate. Some negative types harped on the fact that this sales pace was less than expected and still way below where we were pre-recession. Everyone knows this, and the trend is positive, with new home sales up 5.5% versus a year ago. Also, our painfully slow economic recovery finally appears to be picking up steam.

Review of Last Week

Investors believe the economy will soon be heading up at a faster rate, and that's precisely the direction they continue to send stock prices. Friday, the Dow logged its 11th straight record setting trading day, the longest streak of record closings since 1987. Forget records, the Dow hasn't seen 11 straight days of gains since 1992. The current performance made it three weekly gains in a row for the Dow, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted five weeks in a row of weekly increases. The S&P 500 also ended at a new record level, significant because it's a way more broadly based index than the blue-chip Dow.

Economic reports were sparse during the holiday shortened week but the ones we did receive were good. Gains in sales of existing homes and new homes for January are reported above. The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for February hit a better than expected 96.3. This was a tick down from January but still a very strong indicator of a positive mood about the economy among average Americans. FOMC Minutes from the last Fed meeting revealed a rate hike could happen fairly soon if forthcoming reports on inflation and the employment situation come in as the central bankers expect.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.0%, to 20822; the S&P 500 UP 0.7%, to 2367; and the Nasdaq UP 0.1%, to 5845.

Bonds, including U.S. Treasuries, benefited from a decline in equities outside the U.S. This flight to safety boosted bond prices, as the 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .46, to $105.38. After dipping the week before, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates remained essentially flat, rising just .01% (1 basis point) in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending February 23.

Where are interest rates headed?

This Week’s Forecast

Analysts are forecasting continued growth for Pending Home Sales in January but at a slightly slower pace. Likewise, Personal Spending should be up, though not as much as the month before. The Fed's favorite inflation measure, Core PCE Prices, is predicted to come in a little hotter, which is why more economists now think the central bank will hike rates in May instead of June. Nice to see manufacturing growing, both by the Chicago PMI and the national ISM Index.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 27th – March 3rd

Feb 27     08:30     Durable Goods Orders
Feb 27     10:00     Pending Home Sales
Feb 28     08:30     GDP - 2nd Estimate
Feb 28     09:45     Chicago PMI
Feb 28     10:00     Consumer Confidence
Mar 1     08:30     Personal Income
Mar 1     08:30     Personal Spending
Mar 1     08:30     Core PCE Prices
Mar 1     10:00     ISM Index
Mar 1     10:30     Crude Inventories
Mar 1     14:00     Fed's Beige Book
Mar 2     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claim
Mar 2     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claims
Mar 3     10:00     ISM Services  
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculating Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

After the FOMC Minutes came out last Wednesday, a slight majority of Fed watchers now think we will get the next rate hike in May however rates will stay at that level in June.

Note: In the lower chart, a 27% probability of change is a 73% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.5%-0.75%

After FOMC meeting on:     


Mar 15     0.5%-0.75%
May 3     0.75%-1.0%
Jun 14     0.75%-1.0%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:   


Mar 15           27%
May 3           52%
Jun 14           69%

Where are interest rates headed?

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289

Comments are closed.
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    APPLY NOW

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

popular pages

Refinance
Eliminate PMI
Consolidate Debt
Mortgage Calculators
How Much is My Home Worth?
Interest Rates

Company

About Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
Financing Disclaimer
Contact

mortgage insight

join now
Communications Consent
Picture
Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246

Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
​Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California.
Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies.

Picture
Picture
Picture
Featured in The Denver Post and 5280 Magazine as a Five Star Mortgage Professional
© Copyright 2022. All Rights Reserved.
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now