Scott Synovic Mortgage Loan Originator Colorado's Mortgage Expert
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now

Scott Synovic CMA, CMPS, CMHS
Fairway Independent Mortgage
303.668.3350

Inside Lending - January 9, 2017

1/9/2017

 
Picture
This year we should have 357 of the best days ahead of us, if most of the housing market forecasts come true. One online real estate firm expects a fast sales pace, thanks to millennials surging into the market, helping to push existing home sales up by 2.8% in 2017. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) currently estimates existing home sales will rise by 2.0%, their lower estimate based on increasing home prices.A financial services company whose house price index looks at inflation, wage growth and other factors, says prices are still more affordable now than during the housing boom.

Speaking of home prices, a real estate tech and data firm reported prices in November up 7.1% versus a year ago. The property economist for a research consultancy put this to continued low inventories and the rise in housing demand after the election. Of course, the situation varies by market. That data firm forecasts the year will show a 5% increase in prices overall. But some areas may hit double-digit gains, while others decline. Last week, Case-Shiller reported home prices were finally above their all-time highs. Now a listing site notes that the value of housing stock nationally hit an all-time high in 2016, though some markets are still below their peak prices.

Review of Last Week

You could call 2016 the year of the upstart as British voters who wanted to leave the European Union unexpectedly prevailed, and Donald Trump surprisingly won our Presidential election. Well, 2017 began in the same spirit, with an upstart move in the stock market. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq finished the year's first week at new record levels, while the blue-chip Dow came within a point of the 20,000 threshold before closing just 36 points below it. Friday's December jobs report inspired some of the euphoria as encouraging Hourly Earnings, up 0.4% for the month and 2.9% for the year, compensated for a lackluster 156,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls.

There were other good economic data points. The ISM Index of manufacturing rose in December to 54.7, staying nicely above 50, signaling growth. This was followed by the ISM Services index coming in unchanged at 57.2, which was better than the predicted decline. The services sector of the economy provides the vast majority of jobs, so this is a good thing. We also saw Initial Unemployment Claims drop by 28,000, to 235,000, though Continuing Claims increased by 16,000. The most disappointing report revealed the U.S. Trade Deficit shot up almost 7% in November, with imports outstripping exports by $45.2 billion.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.0%, to 19964; the S&P 500 UP 1.7%, to 2277; and the Nasdaq UP 2.6%, to 5521.

The gain in Hourly Earnings was enough good news to drop bond prices on Friday, but not enough to erase gains made earlier in the week. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .11, at $105.17. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending January 5, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates moved down for the first time in ten weeks, remaining near historical lows.

This Week’s Forecast

The December Retail Sales report is forecast to show a nice boost thanks to both holiday sales and rising prices at the pump. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is also expected to show that folks are continuing to feel better about their economic futures.

The stock and bond markets are closed next Monday January 16 for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 9 – Jan 13

Jan 11 Crude Inventories
Jan 12 Initial Unemployment Claims
Jan 12 Continuing Unemployment Claims
Jan 12 Federal Budget
Jan 13 Producer Price Index
Jan 13 Core PPID
Jan 13 Retail Sales
Jan 13 Business Inventories
Jan 13 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

A few more economists say we'll see another rate hike in March and even more say May, but most still expect the Fed to stand pat.

Note: In the lower chart, a 3% probability of change is a 97% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.5%-0.75%

After FOMC meeting on:

Feb 10.5%-0.75%
Mar 150.5%-0.75%
May 30.5%-0.75% 

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:


Feb 1         3%
Mar 15       24%
May 3       39%

Where are interest rates headed?

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289

Comments are closed.
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    APPLY NOW

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

popular pages

Refinance
Eliminate PMI
Consolidate Debt
Mortgage Calculators
How Much is My Home Worth?
Interest Rates

Company

About Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
Financing Disclaimer
Contact

mortgage insight

join now
Communications Consent
Picture
Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246

Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
​Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California.
Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies.

Picture
Picture
Picture
Featured in The Denver Post and 5280 Magazine as a Five Star Mortgage Professional
© Copyright 2022. All Rights Reserved.
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now