Scott Synovic Mortgage Loan Originator Colorado's Mortgage Expert
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now

Scott Synovic CMA, CMPS, CMHS
Fairway Independent Mortgage
303.668.3350

Inside Lending - July 18, 2016

7/18/2016

 
Picture
While we wait for the riches to roll in, we can meanwhile find a measure of happiness in things like Freddie Mac's monthly Outlook for July. This report tells us that  the U.K.'s 'Brexit' vote to leave the European Union, plus slowing economic growth in China, played big roles in in moving mortgage rates down in the U.S. "The turbulence abroad should continue to create demand for U.S. Treasuries and keep mortgage rates near historic lows," according to Freddie Mac's chief economist.

The Mortgage Bankers Association corroborated the heightened refi action. Their Mortgage Application Survey for the week ending July 8 was up 7.2% overall, with the Refinance Index up 11% and refis making up 64% of total activity. The National Association of Realtors HOME (Housing Opportunities and Market Experience) Survey for Q2 tells us 80% of respondents feel it's a good time to buy and 61% of homeowners think it would now be advantageous to sell. Home prices are appreciating, good for sellers, but at a slower rate, good for buyers. A predictive analytics firm puts annual price gains at 3.5%, with increases forecast in 92% of markets.

Review of Last Week

Record Breaking! The blue chip Dow and the broadly based S&P 500 ended Friday hitting new record highs, as the stock market notched its third weekly gain in a row. So much for fears about the economic fallout from Brexit, the U.K.'s vote to leave the European Union. Traders' spirits were no doubt buoyed by the data that came in at the start of the second quarter corporate earnings season. The first of the big companies reporting beat expectations, which many analysts worried they would miss. And even though rate hike probabilities edged up a tad, virtually no one is worried the Fed will raise rates any time before the end of 2016.

The economic data kept Wall Street enthusiasm from getting out of hand. Yes, there was the upside surprise of June Retail Sales growing 0.6% over the prior month. Excitement over this was dampened by downward revisions to prior months but, hey, consumers are pouring money back into the economy. They're probably happy that inflation remains mild, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in slightly lower than expected. This should also restrain the Fed from touching rates, as it first needs to see prices going up a bit faster. Industrial Production and Business Inventories grew, though Michigan Consumer Sentiment disappointed. Typical.

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.0%, to 18517; the S&P 500 UP 1.5%, to 2162; and the Nasdaq also UP 1.5%, to 5030.

Positive economic data and rising stocks enticed investors away from the safety of bonds, sending prices south. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .29, at $107.02. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates remained near historical lows in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending July 14. Their chief economist suggested, "mortgage rates are likely to remain low throughout the summer." Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

This Week’s Forecast

Look, nothing about this economy is booming, but at least Housing Starts and Building Permits are forecast up a bit in June. The Philadelphia Fed Index is likewise expected to report manufacturing in that key region inching ahead. But Existing Home Sales are predicted slightly down, though still at a decent 5.5 million unit annual rate. We'll take that.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Jul 18 – Jul 22

Jul 19    08:30    Housing Starts
Jul 19    08:30    Building Permits
Jul 20    10:30    Crude Inventories
Jul 21    08:30    Initial Unemployment Claims
Jul 21    08:30    Continuing Unemployment Claims
Jul 21    08:30    Philadelphia Fed Index
Jul 21    10:00    Existing Home Sales
                                                                                                           
Federal Reserve Watch    

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Fed handicappers have finally regained their composure post-Brexit and are no longer forecasting a rate drop. But no rate hike either, as they see Janet Yellen & Co. still paralyzed by "uncertainty." Note: In the lower chart, a 2% probability of change is a 98% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5%

After FOMC meeting on:


Jul 27    0.25%-0.5%
Sep 21    0.25%-0.5%
Nov 2    0.25%-0.5%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on
:

Jul 27    2%
Sep 21    14%
Nov 2    16%

Please call me direct with any questions at 303.668.3350 or Apply Now!

Have a great day!

Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289

Comments are closed.
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    APPLY NOW

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

popular pages

Refinance
Eliminate PMI
Consolidate Debt
Mortgage Calculators
How Much is My Home Worth?
Interest Rates

Company

About Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
Financing Disclaimer
Contact

mortgage insight

join now
Communications Consent
Picture
Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246

Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
​Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California.
Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies.

Picture
Picture
Picture
Featured in The Denver Post and 5280 Magazine as a Five Star Mortgage Professional
© Copyright 2022. All Rights Reserved.
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now