Scott Synovic Mortgage Loan Originator Colorado's Mortgage Expert
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now

Scott Synovic CMA, CMPS, CMHS
Fairway Independent Mortgage
303.668.3350

Inside Lending - November 14, 2016

11/14/2016

 
Picture
As both President Barack Obama and losing candidate Hillary Clinton said, we must come together to support the President-elect Donald Trump as he prepares to take on the world's most powerful and difficult job. Bond traders are viewing a Trump presidency as one that will create very positive economic growth and the economic growth may be accelerated due to lower tax rates, repatriation of corporate cash parked overseas, regulatory reform, a national budget etc., however it is not our job to speculate. The truth is that it is too early for anyone to come up with anything more than pure speculation on any specific issue.

However, it is comforting to note that most observers expect the overall recovery in housing to continue. Some even see it speeding up. Switching to present data, a home price index reports sellers in October priced their homes only 1.15% higher than the appraised value, the fourth month in a row that gap has narrowed. Finally, the National Association of Realtors expects existing home sales to end 2016 at a 5.36 million pace, their best since 2006.

Review of Last Week

When it came to predicting the election, pundits and pollsters and got it wrong. Wall Streeters who warned that a Trump victory would be negative for stocks also got it wrong. Once it became clear that Mr. Trump would win, Dow futures slid 800 points however when the market opened Wednesday, after an initial hiccup, stocks bumped up 257 points. Similar deal on Thursday, and even after a quieter Friday, the blue-chip Dow ended at a new all-time record high, posting its best week in five years. The broadly-based S&P 500 and tech-y Nasdaq also notched serious upward moves for the week.

Basically, investors realized that a Republican president and Congress could lead to lower tax rates, less regulation and fiscal stimulus around infrastructure spending, all positive moves for businesses, jobs and the economy. Let's hope so. What little economic data we got was okay, as Initial Unemployment Claims fell to 254,000 and Continuing Claims were up a bit but still down near the 2 million mark. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment spiked up in its initial November reading but the Federal Deficit was -$44 billion in October. Finally, the election upset did not upset rate hike expectations, as a few Fed members said they were ready to move in December.

The week ended with the Dow UP 5.4%, to 18848; the S&P 500 UP 3.8%, to 2164; and the Nasdaq UP 3.8%, to 5237.

Friday, Veterans Day, the bond market was closed and it sure needed a breather after prices fell for two days straight as investor money shot back into surging stocks. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .92, at $106.22. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending November 10 reported national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates edging up. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so call me direct at 303.668.3350 to help navigate through the process.

This Week’s Forecast

The important Retail Sales report is expected to show growth in October. That month's Housing Starts are also forecast up, heading toward 1.2 million. The Consumer Price Index of inflation is also predicted up, which is what the Fed wants to see for a December rate hike. But manufacturing still is not too solid, with the Philadelphia Fed Index looking to decline, although national Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers should be slightly up.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 14 – Nov 18

Nov 15     08:30     Retail Sales
Nov 15     08:30     NY Empire Manufacturing Index
Nov 15     10:00     Business Inventories
Nov 16     08:30     Producer Price Index
Nov 16     08:30     Core PPI
Nov 16     09:15     Industrial Production
Nov 16     09:15     Capacity Utilization
Nov 16     10:30     Crude Inventories
Nov 17     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Nov 17     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claims
Nov 17     08:30     Consumer Price Index
Nov 17     08:30     Core CPI
Nov 17     08:30     Housing Starts
Nov 17     08:30     Building Permits
Nov 17     08:30     Philadelphia Fed Index
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months.

Nothing in the results of the election or its aftermath has dissuaded economists from thinking the Fed would finally pull the trigger on a small rate hike in December, then stop there for a while.

Note: In the lower chart, an 81% probability of change is only a 19% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5%

After FOMC meeting on:
  

Dec 14     0.5%-0.75%
Feb 1     0.5%-0.75%
Mar 15     0.5%-0.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:     

Consensus


Dec 14  81%
Feb 1  82%
Mar 15  84%

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289

Comments are closed.
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    APPLY NOW

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

popular pages

Refinance
Eliminate PMI
Consolidate Debt
Mortgage Calculators
How Much is My Home Worth?
Interest Rates

Company

About Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
Financing Disclaimer
Contact

mortgage insight

join now
Communications Consent
Picture
Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246

Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
​Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California.
Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies.

Picture
Picture
Picture
Featured in The Denver Post and 5280 Magazine as a Five Star Mortgage Professional
© Copyright 2022. All Rights Reserved.
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now