Scott Synovic Mortgage Loan Originator Colorado's Mortgage Expert
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now

Scott Synovic CMA, CMPS, CMHS
Fairway Independent Mortgage
303.668.3350

Mortgage Blog - August 21, 2017

8/21/2017

 
Picture
Housing Starts dipped 4.8% last month, to a 1.155 million annual rate, while Building Permits slipped 4.1%, to a 1.223 million yearly rate. Before we get caught up in talk about the end of the housing recovery, let's note that most all the drop was in multi-unit starts, which, because of the size of those projects, are very volatile, month to month. Single-family starts were off just 0.5% in July but their trend continues to rise, up 10.9% year-over-year.

Multi-family starts are off 33.7% from a year ago but that just reflects a shift in the mix. In 2015, 35.7% of starts were multi-family. Last month, multi-family made up just 25.9% of all starts. This is good for the economy since each single-family home contributes about twice what a multi-family unit does to GDP. Finally, the EVP of an online real estate company explained why today's home prices are not near bubble-era: "while prices nominally have surpassed the 2006 peak, we're not talking about 2006 dollars. We've had 9 years of inflation. Home prices today have basically recovered to about where they were in 2004".

Review of Last Week

The news was dominated by the sound of political controversy in the U.S. and the fury of yet another instance of Islamic State terrorism, this time in Spain. Those things left investors a bit jittery, which, along with low summertime trading volumes, set the stock market up for a selloff. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all slipped for the week. We monitor market performance because investor sentiment is a pretty good leading indicator for the economy. Some analysts felt last week showed that Wall Streeters are becoming impatient waiting for major elements of the President's pro-growth agenda.

Pro-growth measures are happening  and although the promised tax cuts are not here yet, the economy is obviously improving. Retail Sales kicked up 0.6% in July and are up 4.2% compared to a year ago. The NY Empire Manufacturing Index shot up from 9.2 in July to 25.2 in August, its highest read in almost three years. Consumer discretionary spending is up solidly in areas from amusement parks and campgrounds to motorcycles and boats. Q2 corporate earnings are up 10.2% year-over-year, hitting double-digit growth for the second quarter in a row--plus, revenues are up 5.1%, their strongest performance in 11 quarters!

The week ended with the Dow down 0.8%, to 21675; the S&P 500 down 0.6%, to 2426; and the Nasdaq down 0.6%, to 6217.

It was an up and down week for bonds with prices finally settling little changed from the Friday before. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .06, to $105.41. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending August 17, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates edged lower again.

Where are interest rates headed?

This Week’s Forecast

The big news for us will be the home sales reports for July. Wednesday, New Home Sales are expected to come in up for the month. Thursday, Existing Home Sales are forecast to be up nicely as well. Durable Goods Orders are predicted down from the prior month's gain but when you exclude the volatile transportation segment, they should show growth.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 21st – August 25th

Aug 23     10:00     New Home Sales
Aug 23     10:30     Crude Inventories
Aug 24     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Aug 24     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claims
Aug 24     10:00     Existing Home Sales
Aug 25     08:30     Durable Goods Orders
Aug 25     08:30     Durable Goods Orders - Ex Transportation
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve Policy Changes in Coming Months:

There's a very slight probability the Fed will cut rates at one of the next few meetings. The probability of a December hike is now off the table, with the March meeting being the earliest forecast for higher rates.

Note: In the lower chart, a 4% probability of change is a 96% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.0%-1.25%

After FOMC meeting on:
   

Sep 20     1.0%-1.25%
Nov 1     1.0%-1.25%
Dec 13     1.0%-1.25%

Probability of change from current policy after FOMC meeting on:  

Sep 20             4%
Nov 1             6%
Dec 13           43%

Where are interest rates headed?

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.


Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289

Comments are closed.
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    APPLY NOW

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

popular pages

Refinance
Eliminate PMI
Consolidate Debt
Mortgage Calculators
How Much is My Home Worth?
Interest Rates

Company

About Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
Financing Disclaimer
Contact

mortgage insight

join now
Communications Consent
Picture
Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246

Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
​Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California.
Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies.

Picture
Picture
Picture
Featured in The Denver Post and 5280 Magazine as a Five Star Mortgage Professional
© Copyright 2022. All Rights Reserved.
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now