Scott Synovic Mortgage Loan Originator Colorado's Mortgage Expert
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now

Scott Synovic CMA, CMPS, CMHS
Fairway Independent Mortgage
303.668.3350

Mortgage Blog - August 28, 2017

8/28/2017

 
Picture
Last Wednesday, New Home Sales came in down 9.4% in July at a 571,000 annual rate. Sales for the month were not strong but the dip looked worse, measured against June's upwardly revised annual selling pace. The 8.9% drop in sales from a year ago compares this July's performance to July 2016 which ranked as that year's largest monthly gain for new home sales. An executive of a firm that provides housing information added, "housing starts are currently outpacing closings, signaling a growing market."

That same executive reported, "job growth is the number one fundamental fuel of new home development," noting that the recent increase in high quality, higher paying jobs, is moving more Americans closer to home ownership. Existing Home Sales in July fared better, off just 1.3%, to a 5.44 million annual rate, and 2.1% ahead of where they were a year ago. Demand stays strong - July was the fourth month in a row a typical listing sold in under 30 days. Realtor.com's chief economist said, "continued buyer interest in the face of more than five years of price growth is a sign of strong demand and bodes well for the health of the housing market."

Review of Last Week

After the market slid two weeks in a row, stocks last week surged back solidly, the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all finishing with nice gains. Investors focused on the Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium, where Chair Janet Yellen said any changes to financial regulations should be modest and didn't mention monetary policy. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi also spoke, pushing for open trade and output growth. These speeches gave Wall Streeters the impression rate hikes are a good way off. Also comforting, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reiterated the debt ceiling will be raised in time to keep the government functioning.

The positive investor mood has sparked strong market performance this year, with the three major indexes near record levels. Low interest rates have helped as well as rising corporate earnings. Most importantly, the U.S. economy is improving and about to deliver more growth. The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model projects the economy expanding in Q3 at a 3.8% annual rate. The labor market is healthier, with an average 184,000 new jobs a month, the 4.3% unemployment rate is at a 16-year low and economists think tighter employment conditions will lead to stronger wage growth.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.6%, to 21812; the S&P 500 UP 0.7%, to 2443; and the Nasdaq UP 0.8%, to 6266.

Bond traders loved that Fed Chair Yellen's Jackson Hole speech didn't mention any reduction in their bond buying program, which would send prices down and rates up. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .04, at $105.45. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell for the fourth week in a row in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending August 24.

Where are interest rates headed?

This Week’s Forecast

Not a bad set of economic data is forecast. Pending Homes Sales should keep growing in July. The Fed's favorite PCE Prices measure of inflation is expected up just 0.1%, a 1.2% annual rate, far below their 2% target for a rate hike. The Chicago PMI and ISM Index should keep showing solid expansion in manufacturing. Just under 200,000 Nonfarm Payrolls are projected to have been added in July, while Q2 GDP should climb closer to a 3% economic growth rate.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of August 28th – September 1st

Aug 29     10:00     Consumer Confidence
Aug 30     08:30     GDP - 2nd Estimate
Aug 30     10:30     Crude Inventories
Aug 31     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Aug 31     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claim
Aug 31     08:30     PCE Prices
Aug 31     08:30     Core PCE Prices
Aug 31     08:30     Personal Income
Aug 31     08:30     Personal Spending
Aug 31     09:45     Chicago PMI
Aug 31     10:00     Pending Home Sales
Sep 1     08:30     Average Hourly Earnings
Sep 1     08:30     Average Workweek
Sep 1     08:30     Nonfarm Payrolls
Sep 1     08:30     Unemployment Rate
Sep 1     10:00     ISM Index
Sep 1     10:00     U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

The Fed Funds Futures market shows no chance of a rate hike through the end of this year and into the spring.

Note: In the lower chart, a 0% probability of change is a 100% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.0%-1.25%

After FOMC meeting on:


Sep 20     1.0%-1.25%
Nov 1     1.0%-1.25%
Dec 13     1.0%-1.25%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:  


Sep 20             0%
Nov 1             8%
Dec 13           42%

Where are interest rates headed?

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.


Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289

Comments are closed.
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    APPLY NOW

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

popular pages

Refinance
Eliminate PMI
Consolidate Debt
Mortgage Calculators
How Much is My Home Worth?
Interest Rates

Company

About Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
Financing Disclaimer
Contact

mortgage insight

join now
Communications Consent
Picture
Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246

Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
​Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California.
Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies.

Picture
Picture
Picture
Featured in The Denver Post and 5280 Magazine as a Five Star Mortgage Professional
© Copyright 2022. All Rights Reserved.
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now