![]() The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index rose in January to a new all-time high. More people say that now is a good time to buy and a good time to sell, home prices should rise and mortgage rates fall, and job loss is not a concern. The National Association of Realtors latest Housing Opportunities and Market Experience survey reports, 72% of respondents think now is a good time to buy and 71% think now is a good time to sell, "good news for possible gains heading into 2018." The NAR's chief economist feels, "housing demand in 2018 will be fueled by more Millennial's finally deciding to marry and have kids, and, the expectations that solid job growth and the strengthening economy will push incomes higher." That's pretty good. Review of Last Week If you like wild rides, you would have loved the one investors took last week. The Dow fell steeply (1,000 points) on two different days, then climbed back up Tuesday and Friday, though not enough to keep the major indexes positive for the year. We heard lots of talk that the stock drop was caused by fears of higher inflation and more short-term rate hikes from the Fed, which is okay, but those concerns come from the expectation of stronger economic growth, which ultimately is good for stocks. Many experts called this a "correction" after stocks shot up 7.5% the first four weeks of 2018 following last year's 19.4% surge. They say there's little concern for housing or the economy, with more Americans working than ever, the highest inflation-adjusted wages, and near historically low interest rates. The week ended with the Dow down 5.2%, to 24191; the S&P 500 also down 5.2%, to 2620; and the Nasdaq down 5.1%, to 6874. Bonds were kept in check by concerns over more federal spending. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch fell .28, to $102.55. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates hit their highest level since December 2016 in Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, but, "initial readings indicate housing markets are sustaining their momentum so far." This Week's Forecast Returning to a feast of economic data, we should see a tasty Housing Starts number, up for January. Not so tasty is the predicted move up for inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Retail Sales, along with Philadelphia Fed Index manufacturing, are expected to keep cooking, just at a slightly slower pace The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of February 12th through February 16th Feb 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb 14 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Feb 14 08:30 Core CPI Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Feb 14 10:30 Crude Inventories Feb 15 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims Feb 15 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims Feb 15 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Feb 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 15 08:30 NY Empire Manufacturing Index Feb 15 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Feb 16 10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim Federal Reserve Watch Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months: Some say recent stock market volatility could restrain the Fed, but, the futures market still sees a quarter percent rate hike in March, and another in June. Note: In the lower chart, a 72% probability of change is a 72% certainty the rate will move. Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.25%-1.50% After FOMC meeting on: Mar 21 1.50%-1.75% May 2 1.50%-1.75% Jun 13 1.75%-2.00% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Mar 21 72% May 2 31% Jun 13 58% Where are interest rates headed? Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.coloradosmortgageexpert.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289
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