Mortgage Blog - January 29, 2018

Just like Housing Starts the prior week, New Home Sales closed out 2017 at their highest annual total in a decade, 14.1% ahead of a year ago. They were down 9.3% in December, but the post-hurricanes boost is over. Click here to read more.

Existing Home Sales ended the year in even better shape, posting their best totals since 2006. They slipped 3.6% in December, but still finished 1.1% up from a year ago. Demand stays strong, but inventories are a concern in many markets.

The latest Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey reported the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index up 6%, to its highest level since April 2010.

Review of Last Week

Investors pushed stocks to new record highs, as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all boasted 2% gains for the week, powered by companies' stronger-than-expected earnings reports, with 81% beating sales expectations!

The Q4 GDP-Advance estimate showed 2.6% economic growth, lower-than-expected, but a nice improvement over the 1.8% Q4 growth a year ago. Plus, consumer spending (about 70% of GDP) was up 3.8%, while business spending on equipment shot up 11.4%.

That investment in equipment was reflected in December's Durable Goods Orders, up an unexpected 2.9%, which economists said confirms an improving economy. Finally, both weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims remain historically low.

The week ended with the Dow UP 2.1%, to 26617; the S&P 500 UP 2.2%, to 2873; and the Nasdaq UP 2.3%, to 7506.

Many bonds ended in negative territory, though the damage wasn't too bad to the 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch, down just .02, to $103.56. Freddie Mac's latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey had national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates up for the third week in a row, but still below rates a year ago.

Where are interest rates headed?

This Week's Forecast

No change is expected with the FOMC Rate Decision. The Pending Home Sales index of contracts signed on existing homes is forecast up, foretelling higher sales a few months out. Jobs are key to housing, so predicted gains in Non-farm Payrolls and Hourly Earnings are welcome. The ISM Index and Chicago PMI may slip, but still show strong manufacturing growth.

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of January  29th Through February 2, 2018

Jan 29    08:30    Personal Income  
Jan 29    08:30    Personal Spending
Jan 29    08:30    Core PCE Prices
Jan 30    10:00    Consumer Confidence
Jan 31    08:30    Employment Cost Index
Jan 31    09:45    Chicago PMI
Jan 31    10:00    Pending Home Sales
Jan 31    10:30    Crude Inventories
Jan 31    14:00    FOMC Rate Decision
Feb 1    08:30    Initial Unemployment Claims
Feb 1    08:30    Continuing Unemployment Claims
Feb 1    08:30    Productivity - Prelim.    Q4
Feb 1    08:30    Unit Labor Costs
Feb 1    10:00    ISM Index
Feb 2    08:30    Average Workweek
Feb 2    08:30    Hourly Earnings
Feb 2    08:30    Non-farm Payroll
Feb 2    08:30    Unemployment Rate
Feb 2    10:00    U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Federal Reserve Watch

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

The probability for a rate hike at this Wednesday's Fed meeting remains very low, however the futures market sees a hike in March, but no move in May.

Note: In the lower chart, a 4% probability of change is a 96% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.25%-1.50%

After FOMC meeting on:    

Jan 31    1.25%-1.50%
Mar 21    1.50%-1.75%
May 2    1.50%-1.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:  

Jan 31             4%
Mar 21           80%
May 2           24%

Where are interest rates headed?

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

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Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.coloradosmortgageexpert.com
303.668.3350 Direct

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The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.

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