Scott Synovic Mortgage Loan Originator Colorado's Mortgage Expert
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now

Scott Synovic CMA, CMPS, CMHS
Fairway Independent Mortgage
303.668.3350

Mortgage Blog - November 20, 2017

11/20/2017

 
Picture
The home building sector of the housing market has roared back into action as Housing Starts surged 13.7% in October to a very nice sounding 1.29 million unit annual rate. About 1.5 million units a year are what we need to meet population growth and replace tear-downs, so we're making progress in the right direction. Single family starts rose 5.3% for the month, to an 877,000 annual rate, and housing completions grew 12.6% to a 1.23 million yearly rate. The National Association of Realtors chief economist averred, "Overall, the total activity for the country is moving in the right path."

Housing analysts find it even more encouraging that Building Permits bumped up a solid 5.9% in October to a 1.3 million annual rate. Permits are viewed as a leading indicator of future starts, so this suggests the upward trend in home building should continue. Home builders certainly feel that way, as Builder Confidence hit an index level of 70 this month, the second highest read since July 2005. The National Association of Home Builders chief economist sees "continued upward movement of the single-family housing market." Freddie Mac forecasts new home sales will be the main driver of total home sales going into 2018.

Review of Last Week

Stocks finished lower for the second week in a row, but down only moderately after quietly moving in both directions over five days of trading. Actually, we haven't seen extreme volatility for a while, the VIX index that measures it staying well below average for the past year. This tranquility is happening while stocks deliver a nearly 20% return year-to-date, the market has been up 10 of the last 13 weeks, and we have not seen a monthly loss since October 2016. Investors await tax reform as two proposals grind through Congress but some now feel there's a good chance a bill will be passed.

Analysts say investor optimism is supported by a growing economy, rising corporate earnings and relatively low interest rates. Plus, they point to the kind of economic data we saw last week. October Retail Sales grew 0.2% (0.5% including upward revisions to prior months), and they are now up 4.6% over a year ago. The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) put inflation up 0.2% in October and up 1.8% in the last year. This is near the 2% inflation target the Fed says shows a solidly growing economy. Rising incomes are vital to the housing market, so it was good to see overall worker earnings up, at around a 4% annual rate.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.3%, to 23358; the S&P 500 down 0.1%, to 2579; and the Nasdaq UP 0.5%, to 6783.

Bonds experienced a mixed week but analysts do not feel this reflects any growth concerns. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP.10, at $104.73. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates reversed course and ticked up in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending November 16.

Where are interest rates headed?

This Week's Forecast

Tuesday we'll get the first read on Existing Home Sales that was not negatively affected by the August and September hurricanes. The forecast is for those sales to be in growth mode for October. Just before Tuhanksgiving the Fed will share FOMC Minutes from its November 1 meeting. Rates held then, but everyone sees a hike coming next month, so we'll look for signs confirming that in the minutes.

The financial markets will be closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Friday, the stock market will close at 1:00 pm, the bond market at 2:00 pm.

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 20th - November 24th

Nov 20    10:00    Leading Economic Index (LEI)
Nov 21    10:00    Existing Home Sales
Nov 22    08:30    Initial Unemployment Claims
Nov 22    08:30    Continuing Unemployment Claims
Nov 22    08:30    Durable Goods Orders
Nov 22    10:00    U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final
Nov 22    10:30    Crude Inventories 
Nov 22    14:00    FOMC Minutes

Federal Reserve Watch

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

The Fed futures market sees the Funds Rate going up for sure at next month's meeting, and there's growing sentiment we'll see a second small hike in March.

Note: In the lower chart, a 100% probability of change is a 100% certainty the rate will rise, while a 5% probability of change is a 95% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.00%-1.25%

After FOMC meeting on:    


Dec 13    1.25%-1.50%
Jan 31    1.25%-1.50%
Mar 21    1.25%-1.50%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:
 

Dec 13         100%
Jan 31             5%
Mar 21           48%

Where are interest rates headed?

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.coloradosmortgageexpert.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial
services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors


Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289

Comments are closed.
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    APPLY NOW

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015

    Categories

    All

    RSS Feed

popular pages

Refinance
Eliminate PMI
Consolidate Debt
Mortgage Calculators
How Much is My Home Worth?
Interest Rates

Company

About Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
Financing Disclaimer
Contact

mortgage insight

join now
Communications Consent
Picture
Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
NMLS Consumer Access. Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation
950 South Cherry Street, Suite #1515, Denver, Colorado 80246

Equal Housing Lender licensed through NMLS Regulated by the Division of Real Estate.
​Licensed Mortgage Loan Originator licensed in Colorado and California.
Not endorsed or sponsored by either state or any government agencies.

Picture
Picture
Picture
Featured in The Denver Post and 5280 Magazine as a Five Star Mortgage Professional
© Copyright 2022. All Rights Reserved.
  • About
  • Mortgage Blog
  • Contact
  • Apply Now