![]() As expected, the ill winds of the recent hurricanes blew no good in the housing market. August Housing Starts slipped 0.8%, to a 1.180 million annual rate but with Hurricane Harvey hitting our fourth largest city late that month, this small dip shouldn't be a concern. Analysts say Hurricane Irma, which impacted our third most populous state may also deflate September numbers. Rebuilding after the storms and solid market fundamentals are expected to send starts to new highs by early next year. Starts are still up 1.4% from a year ago, with single family starts up 1.6% for the month. Building permits fared better, up 5.7% in August, to a 1.3 million annual rate. This shows positive movement although the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index dipped in September, typical reaction after big storms, coming in at a still high 64. August Existing Home Sales dropped 1.7%, to a 5.35 million annual rate with Harvey also to blame, sales in the Houston area down 25% versus a year ago. Experts say we may not get back to normal selling rates until December. Freddie Mac's latest monthly Outlook sees sales growing next year, as "the economic environment remains favorable for housing and mortgage markets." Review of Last Week The Fed met last week and held the Fed Funds rate where it's been, as expected however Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members made it clear they would soon tighten monetary policy. This news gave investors pause so after sending stocks to fresh record highs the first half of the week, they cooled things down and held the week's market performance to modest gains in the Dow and S&P 500, also, a minor slip for the Nasdaq. The Fed indicated it would tighten policy in three ways. First starters, 12 of the 16 voting FOMC members think they will hike rates at least a quarter point later this year. Secondly, the Fed's so-called "dot plot" remains unchanged from June, which scoped out three rate hikes in 2018, following the one expected in December. Thirdly, before any of these rate hikes occur, the Fed will begin "normalizing" its balance sheet next month. To boost the economy, in addition to cutting interest rates, the Fed bought Treasuries and mortgage bonds to add liquidity to the system. This took its balance sheet from under $1 trillion to around $4.5 trillion. The Fed will now start selling those bonds at a very slow pace, as they don't want to hurt growth. Remember, these moves are a positive sign that the economy is finally expanding at a healthier rate. The week ended with the Dow UP 0.4%, to 22350; the S&P 500 UP 0.1%, to 2502; and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, to 6427. A down week in the bond market ended higher for some Treasuries, as North Korean threats inspired a safe haven play on Friday. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .05, to $105.31. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 21, national average 30 year fixed mortgage rates edged up slightly. Freddie's chief economist said "this week's uptick...ends a nearly two-month streak of declines." This Week's Forecast The forecast is that August New Home Sales will move up but Pending Home Sales will fall back. This measure of contracts signed on existing homes reflects the tight inventories that have constrained this part of the housing market. Core PCE Prices inflation is expected to edge up into the range the Fed likes for a rate hike, so let's watch this carefully. The Chicago PMI should show Midwest manufacturing continues to grow. The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of September 25th - September 29th Sep 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Sep 119.4 122.9 Sep 26 10:00 New Home Sales Sep 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Sep 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders - ex trans Sep 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Aug Sep 27 10:30 Crude Inventories Sep 28 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims Sep 28 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims Sep 28 08:30 GDP - Third Estimate Sep 29 08:30 Personal Income Sep 29 08:30 Personal Spending Sep 29 08:30 Core PCE Prices Sep 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Sep 29 10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Finall Federal Reserve Watch Speculative forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months: The financial market is taking the Fed at its word and expecting a quarter point rate hike come December. Note: In the lower chart, a 2% probability of change is a 98% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.0%-1.25% After FOMC meeting on: Nov 1 1.0%-1.25% Dec 13 1.0%-1.25% Jan 31 1.0%-1.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Nov 1 2% Dec 13 73% Jan 31 74% Where are interest rates headed? Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. As expected, the ill winds of the recent hurricanes blew no good in the housing market. August Housing Starts slipped 0.8%, to a 1.180 million annual rate, but with Hurricane Harvey hitting our fourth largest city late that month, this small dip shouldn't be a concern. Analysts say Hurricane Irma, which impacted our third most populous state, may also deflate September numbers. Of course, rebuilding after the storms and solid market fundamentals are expected to send starts to new highs by early next year. They're still up 1.4% from a year ago, with single family starts up 1.6% for the month.
Building permits fared better, up 5.7% in August, to a 1.3 million annual rate. This shows a positive vibe, although the National Association of Home Builders sentiment index dipped in September, a typical reaction after big storms, coming in at a still high 64. August Existing Home Sales dropped 1.7%, to a 5.35 million annual rate, with Harvey also to blame, sales in the Houston area down 25% versus a year ago. Experts say we may not get back to normal selling rates until December. Freddie Mac's latest monthly Outlook sees sales growing next year, as "the economic environment remains favorable for housing and mortgage markets." All right! BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Keep learning. Check into business blogs, articles and books, network locally, go to a major conference. You'll hone your skills, acquire new ones and stay up with your field. >> Review of Last Week THE FED HOLDS, THE MARKET HOLDS... The Fed met last week and held the Fed Funds rate where it's been, as expected. But Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members made it clear they would soon tighten monetary policy. This news gave investors pause, so after sending stocks to fresh record highs the first half of the week, they cooled things down and held the week's market performance to modest gains in the Dow and S&P 500, and a minor slip for the Nasdaq. The Fed indicated it would tighten policy in three ways. First off, 12 of the 16 voting FOMC members think they will hike rates at least a quarter point later this year. Secondly, the Fed's so-called "dot plot" remains unchanged from June, which scoped out three rate hikes in 2018, following the one now expected in December. Thirdly, before any of these rate hikes occur, the Fed will begin "normalizing" its balance sheet next month. To boost the economy, in addition to cutting rates, the Fed bought Treasuries and mortgage bonds to add liquidity (more money) to the system. This took its balance sheet from under $1 trillion to around $4.5 trillion. They'll now start selling those bonds, but at a very slow pace, as they don't want to hurt growth. And, remember, these moves are a positive sign that the economy is finally expanding at a healthier rate. The week ended with the Dow UP 0.4%, to 22350; the S&P 500 UP 0.1%, to 2502; and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, to 6427. A down week in the bond market ended higher for some Treasuries, as North Korean threats inspired a safe haven play on Friday. But the 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .05, to $105.31. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 21, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates edged up slightly. Freddie's chief economist said "this week's uptick...ends a nearly two-month streak of declines." Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. DID YOU KNOW?... A new report says says the best time of year to buy a starter home is from October 1 to December 31, when inventories increase about 7%, leading to listing prices falling 3.1% to 4.8% lower than the rest of the year. >> This Week's Forecast NEW HOME SALES UP, PENDING SALES OFF, INFLATION AND MANUFACTURING GROW... They're forecasting August New Home Sales will move up, but Pending Home Sales will fall back. This measure of contracts signed on existing homes reflects the tight inventories that have constrained this part of the housing market. Core PCE Prices inflation is expected to edge up into the range the Fed likes for a rate hike, so let's watch this carefully. The Chicago PMI should show Midwest manufacturing continues to grow. >> The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Sep 25 - Sep 29 Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact Tu Sep 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Sep 119.4 122.9 Moderate Tu Sep 26 10:00 New Home Sales Aug 577K 571K Moderate W Sep 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Aug 0.7% -6.8% Moderate W Sep 27 08:30 Durable Goods Orders - ex trans Aug 0.2% 0.5% Moderate W Sep 27 10:00 Pending Home Sales Aug -0.4% -0.8% Moderate W Sep 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/23 NA 4.6M Moderate Th Sep 28 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 09/23 275K 259K Moderate Th Sep 28 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 09/16 NA 1.980M Moderate Th Sep 28 08:30 GDP - Third Estimate Q2 3.0% 3.0% Moderate F Sep 29 08:30 Personal Income Aug 0.2% 0.4% Moderate F Sep 29 08:30 Personal Spending Aug 0.1% 0.3% HIGH F Sep 29 08:30 Core PCE Prices Aug 0.2% 0.1% HIGH F Sep 29 09:45 Chicago PMI Sep 58.0 58.9 HIGH F Sep 29 10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final Sep 95.4 95.1 Moderate >> Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months...The financial market is taking the Fed at its word and expecting a quarter point rate hike come December. Note: In the lower chart, a 2% probability of change is a 98% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 1.0%-1.25% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Nov 1 1.0%-1.25% Dec 13 1.0%-1.25% Jan 31 1.0%-1.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Nov 1 2% Dec 13 73% Jan 31 74% Scott Synovic is a top performing mortgage loan originator providing superior levels of service and satisfaction to clients and business partners in Colorado - www.scottsynovic.com NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation #2289
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