Ups and downs. Last week, for example, we had two reports go in opposite directions. The news came on Tuesday that Existing Home Sales headed up 2.0% in October, sailing over the 5.50 million threshold to a way better than expected 5.60 million annual rate and putting those sales up 5.9% over a year ago. This up news was followed by some down data. New Home Sales fell 1.9% in October, landing at a 563,000 unit annual rate. However, thanks to strong prior months, new home sales are still up 17.8% from a year ago.

Also up is the conforming loan limit for 2017, which the Federal Housing Finance Agency raised to $424,100 in most of the U.S., and $636,150 in high-cost counties. Finally, we must comment on the recent up direction of mortgage rates. Some in the media seem greatly concerned that this could be a down for the housing recovery. The fact is rates are still extremely low by historical standards, and future hikes are forecast to be small, all good for buyers. Plus, many economists are expecting faster economic growth, which will expand jobs, accelerate wage gains and drive up the home ownership rate, all good for sellers. We're up for that.

Review of Last Week

On Black Friday, a day famous for its door busters, the three major market indexes wound up record busters. The blue chip Dow, the broadly-based S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq all racked up three weeks in a row of stock market gains, setting new record highs. This uptrend in stocks has happened since the election, as investors are betting that President-elect Donald Trump's economic proposals will create higher levels of economic growth. Shouldn't be too hard. The last eight years have seen the economy growing annually at an average 1.1% rate, versus the 3% to 4% growth it was doing before.

Wednesday, FOMC Minutes revealed the Fed felt "relatively close" to raising rates at the last meeting. Wall Street interpreted this as a December rate hike, so there wasn't much reaction in the markets, as investors have already priced that into their stock valuations. Economic data included Durable Goods Orders up a nice 4.8% in October, plus the housing reports covered above. And consumers are pitching in. Online sales on Thanksgiving Day hit $1.15 billion, a 13.6% gain over last year. Interestingly, $449 million of that revenue was spent on mobile devices, 58.6% more than a year ago. Shoppers are busting records too and they are doing it on the go!

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.5%, to 19152; the S&P 500 UP 1.4%, to 2213; and the Nasdaq UP 1.5%, to 5399.

The selling surge in bonds eased up some, but prices still moved down as yields, and rates, moved up. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .37, at $105.13. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending November 23 had national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates moving higher for the second week in a row but they are only a tad above where they were a year ago.

Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

This Week’s Forecast

The Pending Home Sales measure of contracts signed on existing homes is predicted up a bit in October, though not as much as the month before. Personal Spending is also expected up, showing consumers continue to help the economy. But Core PCE Prices should remain quiet, which could quiet the Fed next month. Jobs are also forecast to grow at a quiet pace in November, with just 180,000 new Nonfarm Payrolls. Wage growth should also have quieted to a 0.2% uptick in Hourly Earnings.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 28 – Dec 2

Nov 29     08:30     GDP - 2nd Estimate
Nov 29     10:00     Consumer Confidence
Nov 30     08:30     Personal Income
Nov 30     08:30     Personal Spending
Nov 30     08:30     Core PCE Prices
Nov 30     09:45     Chicago PMI
Nov 30     10:00     Pending Home Sales
Nov 30     10:30     Crude Inventories
Nov 30     14:00     Fed's Beige Book
Dec 1        08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Dec 1        08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claims
Dec 1        10:00     ISM Index
Dec 2        08:30     Average Workweek
Dec 2        08:30     Hourly Earnings
Dec 2        08:30     Nonfarm Payrolls
Dec 2        08:30     Unemployment Rate
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

It is difficult to find an economist who does not think the Fed will hike a quarter percent at its next meeting. We will soon see in two and a half weeks.

Note: In the lower chart, a 94% probability of change is only a 6% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5%

After FOMC meeting on: 

Dec 14     0.5%-0.75%
Feb 1     0.5%-0.75%
Mar 15     0.5%-0.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on: 

Dec 14           94%
Feb 1           94%
Mar 15           95%

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

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Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

The surprises, they keep on coming. The week before last, the nation faced the biggest election surprise in history, and since this is the first time the leader of the free world will be a real estate tycoon, last week's surprise seemed to fit right in.

Housing starts shot up and incredible 25.5% in October, to a 1.323 million annual rate, the fastest pace in nine years. This gain totally offset the drop in September. The two month average of 1.189 million starts is likely close to the underlying trend.

Home building activity is indeed volatile, but October's 25.5% spike was still the largest monthly percent gain in more than 30 years.

The single family part of the market zoomed ahead by 10.7% for the month and now sits 21.7% above where it was a year ago. October's rate represented a sizable increase, it's still well below the 1.5 million units a year housing analysts are looking for. The chief economist at an online listing site said, "housing starts are only about 66% of their 50 year average" (adjusting for the number of U.S. households.) He added, "Clearly, the home building sector represents an industry that has potential to grow." Building permits in October hit a 1.229 million annual rate, up 0.3%. And just think, now we'll have a licensed broker in the Oval Office.

Review of Last Week

Stocks saw their second straight week of post-election gains, bringing the S&P 500 into what one analyst called "the neighborhood of its record high." Nice neighborhood, that. Why this strong uptrend in the market after Donald Trump's surprise Presidential victory? Analysts say many investors feel Trump's policy proposals could spur our economy back to the growth rates we once enjoyed. That would mean more jobs and higher wages. It could also mean inflation and higher interest rates. But a little inflation is okay if people are making more money and the Fed is only talking about hiking by a quarter percent, then sitting on that for a while.

For now, almost no one sees the economic recovery reversing, just continuing to plod slowly ahead. This was documented last week by the usual mixed bag of reports. We received the terrific Housing Starts data covered above, joined by Retail Sales climbing 0.8% in October. But manufacturing still falters, with production flat and capacity down a bit. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 1.6% annually, but wages need to keep up with that price inflation and, unfortunately, cash earnings of all workers are up only 1.2% the past year. Initial Unemployment Claims fell to 235,000 and Continuing Claims finally came in under the two million level.

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.1%, to 18868; the S&P 500 UP 0.8%, to 2182; and the Nasdaq UP 1.6%, to 5322.

Over in the bond market, prices continued losing ground, with Treasuries leading the way down. This then pushed yields and interest rates up. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .72, at $105.50. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates moved higher in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending November 17.

This Week’s Forecast

Reports on October Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales are expected to reveal some slippage, though not a lot. The other thing to watch is Wednesday's release of the FOMC Minutes from the Fed's last meeting. We will look for more indications of their now widely expected December rate hike.

The stock and bond markets are closed on Thanksgiving and close early Black Friday.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 21 – Nov 25

Nov 22     10:00     Existing Home Sales
Nov 23     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Nov 23     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claim
Nov 23     08:30     Durable Goods Orders
Nov 23     10:00     New Home Sales
Nov 23     10:00     U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Nov 23     10:30     Crude Inventories
Nov 23     14:00     FOMC Minutes
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months:

Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony last Thursday before Congress made more that 9 out of 10 economists feel certain we'll see a rate hike from the central bank next month.

Note: In the lower chart, a 95% probability of change is only a 5% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5%
After FOMC meeting on:    

Dec 14     0.5%-0.75%
Feb 1     0.5%-0.75%
Mar 15     0.5%-0.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:    

Dec 14           95%
Feb 1           96%
Mar 15           96%

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

The Holiday Season and the Real Estate Market

According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales rose strongly in the month of September however the upcoming winter and holiday months are typically a slower time of year for the real estate industry.

This can work to the buyer’s advantage.

Fewer real estate transactions can translate to less competition, more motivated sellers, quicker mortgage underwriting turn around times and several other advantages.

I have outlined why the holiday season could be the ideal time to buy a home.

1. Less Buyer Competition

The winter months come with less than favorable weather conditions for would-be home buyers. This means fewer people are looking to purchase homes and there is less buyer competition.

This may minimizes multiple offer situations and bidding wars as we so often see in the Colorado real estate marketplace.

Lower demand could equate to more negotiating power for buyers.

2. Serious Home Sellers

Most are busy this time of year with family, friends and festivities and not inclined to trying to sell their home. As a result, holiday home sellers are serious. They may be more willing to negotiate.  Sellers usually show additional flexibility in areas such as price and other facets of the transaction.

Sellers may also make concessions to get their home sold. They may leave items behind and that riding lawn mower in the garage could be yours.

Be cautious, though, when home buying in the winter.

Sellers will “stage” their homes to sell and during the holiday season, it’s very easy to let your emotions take over. Christmas trees, Christmas presents and the joy that comes along with the season - it's east to imagine your family opening presents in a tastefully decorated home.

Studies show that staged homes sell 73% faster. Make sure you’re buying the home and not the feeling.

3. Faster Mortgage Loan Origination

Traditionally, the holiday months tend to be slower for mortgage lenders. While slower business is not so favorable for the lender, it can be great for the home buyer.

As a result of fewer loans loans in the "pipeline" this could translate to quicker underwriting turn around times. A quick, efficient loan origination process and closing date could help you negotiate a better deal on the home you are buying.

4. Tax Advantages For New Homeowners

One of the biggest reasons that many buyers make the leap from renting to buying is for the tax benefits. If you wait until January to buy, you will not realize the tax advantages until the following year.

Closing by December 31th can mean tax benefits for home buyers, like deductions for mortgage interest, property taxes and perhaps some closing costs.

Always be sure to consult with a tax adviser for professional advise before filing. The mortgage associated tax deductions can be significant for homeowners, especially in the beginning months of your mortgage.

5. Greater Home Affordability

Home prices are typically at 12 month lows in December. This translates to lower home prices whereby allowing buyers to purchase more home for less money. As mentioned, holiday home sellers are generally more motivated about getting their homes sold.

Sellers typically know that the winter months are not necessarily ideal for selling their home. As such, there is usually a specific reason that, instead of doing some holiday shopping or attending a holiday party, they are trying to sell their house.

Whatever the reason may be, the timing could be perfect for making an offer on your dream home.

The holidays are upon us and for home buyers looking for additional holiday bargains, now may be the perfect time to get your dream home at a discount.

Call me today for an excellent real estate agent recommendation at 303.668.3350, get the insider track on mortgage interest rates, or apply now!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

As both President Barack Obama and losing candidate Hillary Clinton said, we must come together to support the President-elect Donald Trump as he prepares to take on the world's most powerful and difficult job. Bond traders are viewing a Trump presidency as one that will create very positive economic growth and the economic growth may be accelerated due to lower tax rates, repatriation of corporate cash parked overseas, regulatory reform, a national budget etc., however it is not our job to speculate. The truth is that it is too early for anyone to come up with anything more than pure speculation on any specific issue.

However, it is comforting to note that most observers expect the overall recovery in housing to continue. Some even see it speeding up. Switching to present data, a home price index reports sellers in October priced their homes only 1.15% higher than the appraised value, the fourth month in a row that gap has narrowed. Finally, the National Association of Realtors expects existing home sales to end 2016 at a 5.36 million pace, their best since 2006.

Review of Last Week

When it came to predicting the election, pundits and pollsters and got it wrong. Wall Streeters who warned that a Trump victory would be negative for stocks also got it wrong. Once it became clear that Mr. Trump would win, Dow futures slid 800 points however when the market opened Wednesday, after an initial hiccup, stocks bumped up 257 points. Similar deal on Thursday, and even after a quieter Friday, the blue-chip Dow ended at a new all-time record high, posting its best week in five years. The broadly-based S&P 500 and tech-y Nasdaq also notched serious upward moves for the week.

Basically, investors realized that a Republican president and Congress could lead to lower tax rates, less regulation and fiscal stimulus around infrastructure spending, all positive moves for businesses, jobs and the economy. Let's hope so. What little economic data we got was okay, as Initial Unemployment Claims fell to 254,000 and Continuing Claims were up a bit but still down near the 2 million mark. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment spiked up in its initial November reading but the Federal Deficit was -$44 billion in October. Finally, the election upset did not upset rate hike expectations, as a few Fed members said they were ready to move in December.

The week ended with the Dow UP 5.4%, to 18848; the S&P 500 UP 3.8%, to 2164; and the Nasdaq UP 3.8%, to 5237.

Friday, Veterans Day, the bond market was closed and it sure needed a breather after prices fell for two days straight as investor money shot back into surging stocks. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .92, at $106.22. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending November 10 reported national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates edging up. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so call me direct at 303.668.3350 to help navigate through the process.

This Week’s Forecast

The important Retail Sales report is expected to show growth in October. That month's Housing Starts are also forecast up, heading toward 1.2 million. The Consumer Price Index of inflation is also predicted up, which is what the Fed wants to see for a December rate hike. But manufacturing still is not too solid, with the Philadelphia Fed Index looking to decline, although national Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers should be slightly up.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 14 – Nov 18

Nov 15     08:30     Retail Sales
Nov 15     08:30     NY Empire Manufacturing Index
Nov 15     10:00     Business Inventories
Nov 16     08:30     Producer Price Index
Nov 16     08:30     Core PPI
Nov 16     09:15     Industrial Production
Nov 16     09:15     Capacity Utilization
Nov 16     10:30     Crude Inventories
Nov 17     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Nov 17     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claims
Nov 17     08:30     Consumer Price Index
Nov 17     08:30     Core CPI
Nov 17     08:30     Housing Starts
Nov 17     08:30     Building Permits
Nov 17     08:30     Philadelphia Fed Index
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months.

Nothing in the results of the election or its aftermath has dissuaded economists from thinking the Fed would finally pull the trigger on a small rate hike in December, then stop there for a while.

Note: In the lower chart, an 81% probability of change is only a 19% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5%

After FOMC meeting on:   

Dec 14     0.5%-0.75%
Feb 1     0.5%-0.75%
Mar 15     0.5%-0.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:     

Consensus

Dec 14  81%
Feb 1  82%
Mar 15  84%

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate

Chair Janet Yellen doesn't touch rates and doesn't elaborate.

This left the pundits speculating over a Fed policy statement that said to expect rates to remain historically low "for some time." Still, most economists think a December rate hike is a certainty however the Fed's latest statement did downgrade its view of household spending from "growing strongly" to "rising modestly" and one member who voted for a rate hike in September now voted against it.

Of course, the Fed Funds Rate is not a mortgage rate, although a hike from the Fed can eventually affect mortgages. Nonetheless, the chief economist at a major aggregator of real estate data commented, "I think we'll see rates rise from dirt cheap to a very low level as we move into next year." Younger buyers are finally showing up in the housing market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist said that in the past year, "those under age 35 made up 61% of first time buyer transactions." He added that their increased presence "greatly depends on supply improvements and if wages can finally awaken from their sluggish pace of growth."

Review of Last Week

Stocks ended the week before the election with all three indexes decidedly down, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posting losses for the second week in a row. This is normal stock market reaction to a close Presidential race and this year's has recently tightened. Do understand this has nothing to do with any political leanings on Wall Street. Investors simply hate uncertainty, and more observers are now saying the White House prize is up for grabs. Economic data remains uncertain too, with the ISM Index of manufacturing activity up a bit, but ISM Services down for that part of the economy supplying more than 80% of U.S. jobs.

Speaking of jobs, Friday's employment report got the usual mixed reviews. October saw 161,000 new non farm payrolls, and there were upward revisions to prior months, yet these numbers barely cover population growth. The household survey, which includes small businesses (the big engine for new jobs), showed a reduction of 43,000 for the month. And the unemployment rate dipped to 4.9%, but that was with 195,000 leaving the labor force. The report's brightest spot was the 0.4% rise in average hourly earnings, and many feel the Fed will take that as a sign they can raise rates next month in spite of an economy that grew at just a 1.4% annual rate in Q2.

The week ended with the Dow down 1.5%, to 17888; the S&P 500 down 1.9%, to 2085; and the Nasdaq down 2.8%, to 5046.

Bond traders focused on the negative rather than the positive in Friday's jobs report, sending Treasuries and other issues higher. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .08, at $107.14. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates went up in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending November 3, but remain below where they were a year ago. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

This Week’s Forecast

Forgive the sad joke, but the October Federal Deficit is one of this week's few economic reports, and no one expects to hear that Washington is suddenly operating in the black. Tuesday is Election Day and the markets will no doubt react to the results, especially given the paucity of economic data.

Friday, November 11th, the stock market is open, but the bond market is closed in observance of Veterans Day.

The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.

Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 7 – Nov 11

Nov 09     10:30     Crude Inventories
Nov 10     08:30     Initial Unemployment Claims
Nov 10     08:30     Continuing Unemployment Claims
Nov 10     14:00     Federal Deficit
Nov 11     10:00     U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
                                                                                                          
Federal Reserve Watch   

Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months

An overwhelming majority of economists see the Fed hiking by a quarter of a percent in December, but holding the rate there, clear through the March meeting.

Note: In the lower chart, a 67% probability of change means there's only a 33% certainty the rate will stay the same.

Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5%

After FOMC meeting on:  

Dec 14    0.5%-0.75%
Feb 1    0.5%-0.75%
Mar 15    0.5%-0.75%

Probability of change from current policy:

After FOMC meeting on:     

Consensus

Dec 14    67%
Feb 1    69%
Mar 15    70%

Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply!

Apply Now!
Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates!

Cheers!

Scott Synovic
Nations Reliable Lending, LLC
Colorado's Mortgage Expert
www.scottsynovic.com
303.668.3350 Direct

NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407
Regulated by the Division of Real Estate