 Both new and existing home sales dipped last month. New homes delivered the headline number, down 11.4% but that was because revisions to March pushed new home sales up to their fastest pace yet in the recovery, and, at a 569,000 unit annual rate. April new home sales are still high compared to 2016. Also, the median sales price dropped, indicating builders are more sensitive to affordability.
Existing home sales saw less of a drop in April, slipping just 2.3% and still hit a 5.57 million unit annual rate, up from a year ago. This monthly dip was also set up by fabulous numbers the prior month, when March existing home sales came in at their fastest pace in more than a decade. Nationally, supply remains tight but inventories have increased. Demand stayed strong, with properties typically on the market just 29 days, the shortest time period in the last six years. Freddie Mac's chief economist opined, "With home sales, housing starts and home values up, 2017 is shaping up to be the best year for housing in over a decade." Review of Last Week The mood on Wall Street went super positive once again, and, at the end of the week, the broadly-based S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq both reached fresh all-time highs, while the blue-chip Dow finished just 0.2% below its all-time record close. FOMC Minutes from the last Fed meeting revealed "it would soon be appropriate" to tighten monetary policy again, meaning hike rates in June. This shows that the central bank has confidence in the economic outlook, attributing slower Q1 growth to transitory factors. Friday's revised Q1 GDP had the economy growing at a better than expected 1.2% annual rate. The largest contributions to that GDP growth came from upticks in home building and business fixed investment, which rose at an 11.4% annual rate, its fastest pace in five years. Corporations are doing better, with earnings among the S&P 500 up 13.6% versus a year ago, and revenues up 7.8% for the quarter, the biggest increase since Q4 of 2011. There was a dip in April Durable Goods Orders but this followed a big upward revision to March. Michigan Consumer Sentiment for May came in a tick higher than April and the four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims hit a four-decade low, good for us all. The week ended with the Dow UP 1.3%, to 21080; the S&P 500 UP 1.4%, to 2416; and the Nasdaq UP 2.1%, to 6210. Bonds largely ended the week with modest gains in spite of the upwardly revised Q1 GDP number. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond finished the week UP .01, at $105.45. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending May 25, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates sank to a new low for the year. Where Are Rates Headed? This Week’s Forecast It's nice to see Pending Home Sales forecast back in positive territory in April. Likewise Personal Spending and the Core PCE Prices inflation measure are also expected to rebound. Manufacturing is predicted to stay in growth territory, according to the Midwest Chicago PMI and the national ISM Index. May Nonfarm Payrolls are forecast to come in just under 200,000, with Hourly Earnings continuing to rise, a good thing for housing. U.S. financial markets were closed yesterday, May 29, in observance of Memorial Day. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of May 29, 2017 – June 2, 2017 May 30 08:30 Personal Income May 30 08:30 Personal Spending May 30 08:30 Core PCE Prices May 30 10:00 Consumer Confidence May 31 09:45 Chicago PMI May 31 10:00 Pending Home Sales May 31 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Jun 1 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims Jun 1 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims Jun 1 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q1 Jun 1 08:30 Unit Labor Costs-Rev. Q1 Jun 1 10:00 ISM Index Jun 1 11:00 Crude Inventories Jun 2 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 2 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 2 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 2 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 2 08:30 Trade Balance Federal Reserve Watch Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months: The probability for a rate hike in June is now well above 80% but rates are expected to stay untouched through the summer. Note: In the lower chart, an 84% probability of change is only a 16% likelihood the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.75%-1.0% After FOMC meeting on: Jun 14 1.0%-1.25% Jul 26 1.0%-1.25% Sep 20 1.0%-1.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Jun 14 84% Jul 26 85% Sep 20 91% Where are interest rates headed? Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.  It looked like the recovery in home building had come to a stop in April as Housing Starts fell 2.6%, to a 1.172 million annualized rate, however, compared to a year ago, starts are still up 0.7% overall. In addition, the April drop was entirely due to a decline in multifamily starts, which are exceedingly volatile on a monthly basis. Single family starts were up 0.4% for the month and are now 8.9% ahead of their pace a year ago. New building permits also dipped 2.5%, to a 1.229 million annual rate but permits for single-family units are up 6.2% versus a year ago, while multifamily permits are up 4.8%.
Much of the home building recovery is still ahead of us. Experts say we need to build about 1.5 million units annually just to cover population growth and replace tear downs. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported builder confidence in the market for new single family homes went up two points in May, hitting its second highest reading since before the downturn. The NAHB also reported the median size for new single family homes decreased to 2,389 square feet from 2,465 square feet a year ago because builders are bringing much needed entry-level homes to the market. Review of Last Week Stocks finished Friday just marginally down for the week but they certainly traveled a rocky road getting there. The S&P 500 hit a record high on Monday then fell big-time on Wednesday as investors feared the turmoil in Washington might jeopardize the Trump administration's pro-growth policies. The term "Trump Slump" emerged in the media, although the S&P 500 ended Wednesday less than 2% below Monday's all-time high. Thursday and Friday, investors re-gained their sanity and stocks re-gained much of their losses, though not enough to end ahead for the five days of trading. Expectations for tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending are certainly generating economic optimism. The small business confidence survey is at a 13-year high, terrific for the sector that employs most Americans. Consumer confidence is at a 16-year high, fueled by healthy job growth, a pickup in wages, unemployment at a 10-year low, and encouraging housing market indicators. Industrial Production in April rose an unexpected 1.0% overall, the once dormant manufacturing sector growing steadily, along with mining and utilities. Manufacturing sentiment in New York fell but Capacity Utilization climbed nationally. The week ended with the Dow down 0.4%, to 20805; the S&P 500 down 0.4%, to 2382; and the Nasdaq down 0.6%, to 6084. Volatility in the stock market generally bodes well for bonds and that was demonstrated last week. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .30, at $105.44. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates edged down, staying near their lows for the year, in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending May 18th. Where Are Rates Headed? This Week’s Forecast Analysts are predicting both New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales will take a breather in April, undoubtedly caused by decreasing inventories in some regions however we should get a few more indications that the economy is expanding, with the rising numbers for the Q1 GDP, Second Estimate and April Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation, which exclude that volatile sector. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of May 22nd through May 26th May 23 10:00 New Home Sale May 24 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 24 10:30 Crude Inventories May 25 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims May 25 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims May 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders May 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders May 26 08:30 GDP - 2nd Estimate May 26 10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Federal Reserve Watch Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months: The probability of a Fed rate hike in June is still highly likely, at well over 50%, but rates should hold there through September. Note: In the lower chart, a 79% probability of change is only a 21% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.75%-1.0% After FOMC meeting on: Jun 14 1.0%-1.25% Jul 26 1.0%-1.25% Sep 20 1.0%-1.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Jun 14 79% Jul 26 80% Sep 20 86% Where are interest rates headed? Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.  Last month, consumers grew more optimistic about the opportunities in today's housing market. Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index went up 2.2% in April and those who said now is a good time to buy a home rose 5%. A healthy jobs situation drives a healthy housing market so it was very encouraging that Fannie also found 77% of consumers are more optimistic about the stability of their jobs, a 7% bump over the month before and consumers reporting their household income significantly higher than a year ago went up two percentage points.
Those good feelings do seem to be affecting home sales. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Survey reported their weekly Purchase Index at its highest level since October 2015 and the Conventional Purchase Index reached its highest level since April 2009. A study from a national real estate site says the majority of homes are still priced below their pre-recession peaks, with just 34.2% surpassing those values. In line with this, the National Association of Home Builders reports 60.3% of new and existing homes that sold in the first quarter were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $68,000. Review of Last Week If you had money in tech stocks, you probably had a nice week in the markets again, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq logged its fourth straight weekly gain. Not so good for the blue-chip Dow or the broadly based S&P 500 as both suffered small setbacks after heading higher the last four weeks in a row. Centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron won Sunday's presidential election in France so Wall Street concerns about that country leaving the European Union evaporated. Traders in fact were unusually calm, as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the "investor fear gauge," on Monday hit its lowest mark since December 1993. One thing people are fearing less is an aggressive rate-hike path from the Fed. The President of the Chicago Fed said two more rate hikes this year may not be necessary after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures moderated a bit in April. Retail Sales went up 0.4% for that month while the March number was upwardly revised from -0.3% to 0.1%. Best of all, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report revealed consumers had some of the most favorable real income expectations in twelve years. The week ended with the Dow down 0.5%, to 20897; the S&P 500 down 0.3%, to 2391; and the Nasdaq UP 0.3%, to 6121. The bond market reacted to the lower inflation outlook by pushing prices up and yields down on Treasuries, although the 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .06, to $105.14. In Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending May 11, national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates stayed near lows for the year. Where are interest rates headed? This Week’s Forecast Analysts are forecasting home building to continue its upward trek in April with both Housing Starts and Building Permits nicely ahead for the month. Manufacturing should be good overall. The national outlook is expected to show Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization both up in April and analysts expect the Philadelphia Fed Index to reveal factory activity in that region dipped just a bit, but is still in positive growth territory. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of May 15th – May 19th May 15 08:30 NY Empire Manufacturing Index May 16 08:30 Housing Starts May 16 08:30 Building Permits May 16 09:15 Industrial Production May 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization May 17 10:30 Crude Inventories May 18 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims May 18 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims May 18 08:30 Philadelphia Fed Index May 18 10:00 Leading Economic Index Federal Reserve Watch Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months: About three out of four expert observers feel sure we'll see a quarter percent rate hike next month however they expect the rate to stay there until September. Note: In the lower chart, a 74% probability of change is only a 26% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.75%-1.0% After FOMC meeting on: Jun 14 1.0%-1.25% Jul 26 1.0%-1.25% Sep 20 1.0%-1.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Jun 14 74% Jul 26 76% Sep 20 84% Where are interest rates headed? Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.  The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 28 reported the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was 4% up from the week prior. The March CoreLogic Home Price Index was up for the month, just 2.8% off its 2006 however a property economist at a prominent economic research consultancy pointed out Case-Shiller's latest report shows "the pace of house price gains slowed, with the smallest month-on-month rise since July last year."
If home prices concern you check out the Real House Price Index (RHPI) from a leader in settlement services. The RHPI measures price changes adjusted for the impact of income and interest rate changes on consumer house-buying power over time. In other words, it's a good gauge of affordability. Real house prices are 32.8% below the July 2006 peak, and 9.7% below the level in January 2000 and their chief economist adds, "wages continue to grow and the level of affordability in most markets remains high by historical standards." No wonder Consumer Confidence is reported still at strong levels. Review of Last Week The stock market has returned to its record-breaking ways. The broadly based S&P 500 ended the week at a record-setting 2399, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared to 6101, another record finish. The blue-chip Dow didn't set a record but did close above 21000 for the first time since early March. There were good reasons for these upbeat feelings on Wall Street and you could start with Congress avoiding a government shutdown, having reached an agreement to keep the whole show funded through September. Things are also beginning to look better in the real economic world the rest of us live in. The ISM Index revealed manufacturing grew in April, just at a slower rate. Core PCE Prices, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, is up 1.6% the past year, edging toward the central bank's 2% target range. Then, the Fed didn't raise rates at its meeting, saying "the fundamentals" supporting the continued growth of consumer spending "remained solid." In fact, Personal Spending, a key economic driver, is now up 4.7% the past year. The Fed also said, "the labor market has continued to strengthen," and Friday we saw 211,000 Non farm Payrolls were added in April with the Unemployment Rate down to 4.4%, a level not seen since 2001. The week ended with the Dow UP 0.3%, to 21007; the S&P 500 UP 0.6%, to 2399; and the Nasdaq UP 0.9%, to 6101. In the bond market, Treasuries hung in there, but other bonds dipped, thanks to that nice April jobs report. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .10, at $105.20. National average 30-year fixed mortgage rates remained virtually flat in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending May 4. Where are interest rates headed? This Week’s Forecast After remaining dormant in March, inflation is expected to head up in April. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the wholesale Producer Price Index (PPI) are both forecast higher for the month. The economy certainly seems to be getting into better shape, with Retail Sales predicted to be up strongly, both overall and excluding auto sales. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of May 8th – May 12th May 10 10:30 Crude Inventories May 10 14:00 Federal Budget May 11 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims May 11 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims May 11 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) May 11 08:30 Core PPI May 12 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) May 12 08:30 Core CPI May 12 08:30 Retail Sales May 12 08:30 Retail Sales Ex-Auto May 12 10:00 Business Inventories May 12 10:00 U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim. Federal Reserve Watch Speculative Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months: Many observers feel the markets have already 'baked in' a quarter percent rate hike in June but they don't see any further upward movement through September. Note: In the lower chart, an 83% probability of change is only a 17% likelihood the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.75%-1.0% After FOMC meeting on: Jun 14 1.0%-1.25% Jul 26 1.0%-1.25% Sep 20 1.0%-1.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Jun 14 83% Jul 26 84% Sep 20 91% Where are interest rates headed? Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors.  March New Home Sales zoomed up a way better than expected 5.8%, and are now 15.8% ahead of their pace a year ago hitting a 621,000 unit annual rate. Sales rose for the third month in a row, demonstrating unusual stability in what can be very volatile numbers, month to month. Keep in mind, multi-family homes (town homes, urban condos) are not counted in this report.There were 3,000 more unsold new homes where construction had yet to start however the inventory of completed homes was unchanged. Pending Home Sales took a slight dip in March. This National Association of Realtors (NAR) index of contracts signed on existing homes had put up a string of impressive reads, so tight inventory was the problem, as demand is still strong. The NAR's chief economist observed, "Home shoppers are coming out in droves this spring," noting 42% of homes sold for asking price or more. He forecast existing home sales at 5.64 million for the year, up 3.5% over 2016. The chief economist at a major insurance firm sees sales rising thanks to "solid job gains, faster wage growth, still low, albeit rising, mortgage rates, and faster household formations." Review of Last Week "Thank you very much," said Wall Street to the voters of France as the week began. Sunday's first round of that country's presidential election narrowed the race to Emmanuel Macron, who wants tighter integration with the European Union, enjoying a comfortable lead over Marine Le Pen, who wants a referendum on EU membership. The EU is a positive to investors so this result spurred a stock buying binge the first two days. That was enough, despite some later slumping, to send the three major market indexes up, as the Dow scored its best week of the year, and the techy Nasdaq crossed the 6,000 threshold for the first time ever. Investor caution came Wednesday with President Trump's outline for tax cuts, encouraging, but lacking details. We also had continuing geopolitical tension about North Korea, and the GDP-Advanced read--up just 0.7% in Q1. Average Q1 growth is just 0.9% since 2011, followed by stronger numbers the rest of the year plus the report said business fixed investment shot up at a 9.4% annual rate, this is a sign of improving economic growth, just like the solid Q1 corporate earnings reports we saw. The Dow has just booked the best performance in the postwar era from Election Day through the 100th day in office for a first term president. The week ended with the Dow UP 1.9%, to 20941; the S&P 500 UP 1.5%, to 2384; and the Nasdaq UP 2.3%, to 6048. Bond prices overall ended a tick down for the week, suffering from the good feelings driving up stocks. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week down .03, at $105.30. For the week ending April 27, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates rising ever so slightly for the first time in five weeks. Where are interest rates headed? This Week’s Forecast The economic data flow will be heavy this week. Key reads will be Personal Spending, predicted up a bit, expected growth in Non farm Payrolls and a nice boost in Hourly Earnings. The ISM Index should also stay in growth territory, solidly above 50, while the Core PCE Prices inflation measure should come in flat. Flat is the forecast for the FOMC Rate Decision, thank you very much, Fed governors. The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Where are interest rates headed? Economic Calendar for the Week of May 1st – May 5th May 1 Personal Income May 1 Personal Spending May 1 Core PCE Prices May 1 ISM Inde May 3 ISM Services May 3 Crude Inventories May 3 FOMC Rate Decision May 4 Initial Unemployment Claims May 4 Continuing Unemployment Claims May 4 Trade Balance May 4 Productivity - Prelim. May 4 Unit Labor Costs-Rev. May 5 Average Workweek May 5 Hourly Earnings May 5 Nonfarm Payrolls May 5 Unemployment Rate Federal Reserve Watch Speculative Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months: Few observers expect a rate hike at this week's FOMC meeting, but the markets are figuring we'll see a quarter percent gain come June. Note: In the lower chart, a 5% probability of change is a 95% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.75%-1.0% After FOMC meeting on: May 30.75%-1.0% Jun 141.0%-1.25% Jul 261.0%-1.25% Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: May 3 5% Jun 14 66% Jul 26 71% Where are interest rates headed? Call me now, 303.668.3350 or click here to apply! Apply Now! Get the Insider Track on Interest Rates! Cheers! Scott Synovic Nations Reliable Lending, LLC Colorado's Mortgage Expert www.scottsynovic.com 303.668.3350 Direct NMLS: 253799 / NRL NMLS: 181407 Regulated by the Division of Real Estate The material contained in this newsletter has been prepared by an independent third-party provider. The content is provided for use by real estate, financial services and other professionals only. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee it is without errors. |
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Scott Synovic NMLS #253799 Fairway Independent Mortgage NMLS #2289
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